바이러스가 경제를 강타하면서 김정은의 중국 의존도 증가

North Korea

Kim Jong Un’s dependence on China grows as virus hits economy
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중국은 북한이 식량과 연료에 계속 접근 할 수 있도록 보장 할 것이라고 분석가들은 말한다.

코로나 바이러스 전염병은 북한이 감염이 전혀 없다는 주장과 함께 북한의 경제적 문제를 악화 시켰습니다.

September 9, 2020 2:03 am by Edward White in Wellington과 Christian Shepherd in Beijing
분석가들은 북한 지도자가 거의 10 년 만에 최악의 경제 위기에 직면하면서 중국의 불법 비즈니스 네트워크와 중국의 원조에 대한 김정은의 의존도가 증가 할 것이라고 분석가들은 말한다.
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36 세의 독재자는 지난달 북한이 경제적 목표를 달성하기 위해 고군분투하고 있다고 말했다. 인정은 드물게 실패에 대한 양보이자 '병 진선'으로 알려진 이중 궤도 인 핵무기 개발과 함께 그의 경제 성장 정책에 타격을 입혔습니다.

미국과 유엔의 강력한 제재와 코로나 바이러스 전염병으로 인한 낙진과 그에 따른 중국과의 합법적 무역 폭락, 그리고 일련의 최근 태풍과 홍수로 인해 북한에서 사업을 운영하는 북한 주민들의 수입의 중요성이 높아졌습니다. 다른 국가, 해외 근로자의 송금 및 사이버 범죄로 인한 현금.

It is probably worse than it has been for a long time . . . Things do look very, very bad, and they looked like they were bad before the coronavirus hit,” said Peter Ward, an expert on the North Korean economy at the University of Vienna.

North Korea has not reported a single confirmed coronavirus infection within its borders, a feat met with scepticism by some international experts.

Data on the state's finances are rare and often unreliable. This means analysts are reluctant to provide estimates of the potential respite from sanctions-busting revenue.

But a report published this month by the Royal United Services Institute, a London-based think-tank, found that a network of 150 Chinese businesses had a central role in facilitating North Korean access to international markets. It said they were involved in about $2.7bn worth of shipments between 2014 and 2017, representing about 20 per cent of the $13.9bn value of North Korea’s trade during that period.

Several “red flags” from the business operations, such as co-located addresses and phone numbers, as well as minimal public information, indicated the groups were front companies for North Korean interests, RUSI said. The report also noted that 135 of the companies were still registered as active on Chinese corporate databases, suggesting many remained operational despite the imposition of US and UN Security Council sanctions.

Separately, four US government agencies last month released a joint alert over the resumption of activity this year by a group of “North Korean government cyber actors” who have attempted to steal as much as $2bn over the past five years. The group, dubbed the BeagleBoyz, target cash from ATMs in cyber attacks that have also left banks’ computer systems inoperable, the agencies said.
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Experts stressed, however, that the fallout from the coronavirus pandemic on global economic activity would likely hit North Korea’s overseas business interests, which are predominantly in China, as well as North Korean workers in China and Russia.

“All these types of networks are hit less severely than other kinds of economic activity, but it doesn’t mean they are not shrinking,” said Andrei Lankov, a North Korean expert at Kookmin University in Seoul.
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Daniel Wertz, a programme manager at the National Committee on North Korea, a US think-tank, said “travel restrictions have made it far more difficult for North Korea to send workers and trading network operatives abroad, so the regime has had to rely on those overseas networks in place at the beginning of the year”.

Mr Lankov said that despite the economic hardship facing North Korea’s 25m people — 60 per cent of whom already face food insecurity, according to the US government — China would not let the situation deteriorate into a political crisis. Beijing has made a strategic decision to support Mr Kim as part of a “buffer” against the US and will ensure Pyongyang has access to food and fuel, he added.
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“They will just send enough food, just to make sure North Koreans will be malnourished but not starving to death,” he said. “They will send enough fuel, just to make sure vital production can continue. They will send basic supplies, just to make sure that North Koreans will get angry and go out on the streets.”
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Mr Ward added that Mr Kim theoretically had the option to ease pressure via economic “liberalisation” — a move that would cut against a broader reassertion of centralised control.

“They could look at the issue of structural reform at home — but I don’t think they will; there are very few indications that they are thinking about it,” he said.

Additional reporting by Katrina Manson in Washington and Kang Buseong in Seoul

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