Winnipeg Jets NHL Expansion Draft Plans - Part 3: The Defense

The NHL expansion draft is rapidly approaching! This will be the means by which the Vegas Golden Knights acquire players for their inaugural NHL season in 2017-18. In preparation, I will be posting a series of posts to explore the rules of the draft, and how the Winnipeg Jets might approach it. The series will include:

1. Exploring the rules of the NHL expansion draft and how they apply to the Winnipeg Jets
2. 7/3/1 or 8/1 for the Winnipeg Jets?
3. The Defense: would Toby Enstrom waive his No-move clause?
4. The Forwards: will the Jets try to cash in on Mathieu Perreault’s peak value by trading him prior to the expansion draft?
5. Veteran goaltender: exploring the impact of acquiring one before the expansion draft
6. My projected Winnipeg Jets expansion draft protected list.

In this post, I’ll take a closer look at the Defence group, including a look at whether Toby Enstrom would waive his No-Move clause in order to be exposed in the expansion draft. To start out, here’s another look at the Winnipeg Jets defensemen eligible for the expansion draft:

Winnipeg Jets Players Eligible for the Expansion Draft

*Red font denotes players who must be protected due to No Move clause

The No Move clauses attached to the contracts of Byfuglien and Enstrom put significant constraints on the Jets’ options here. Regardless of whether the Jets choose to deploy a 7/3/1 or an 8/1 protected list, if we assume that neither No Move clause is waived then the picture is actually quite clear. The ranking of Jets defensemen would be: 1. Byfuglien; 2. Enstrom; 3. Trouba; 4. Myers.

On the other hand, if the Jets were at liberty to rank their defensemen however they chose, it would likely look like this (with some debate about the bottom two spots): 1. Trouba; 2. Byfuglien; 3. Myers; 4. Enstrom.
Taking a closer look at Myers and Enstrom: I consider Myers to be the better player, while he also has an attractive contract situation: two years remaining with a cap hit of $5.5 mil and salaries of $3.5 and $3 mil, respectively. Enstrom has one year remaining with a value of $5.75 mil for both his salary and cap hit (salary numbers courtesy of nhlnumbers.com). On the other hand, Myers’s recent injury history raises some doubt as to his long term career prospects. The Jets themselves would be best positioned to assess Myers’ medical issues, and the uncertainty could actually serve to make him less desirable to the Golden Knights should he be left unprotected.

Turning to Enstrom, many fans have suggested that the Jets should (and likely are) requesting that he waive his No Move clause. In response to this, I have a simple question: why would he? Players negotiate No Move clauses for a reason: they want to maintain some control and some certainty over where they play. If Enstrom waived the No Move for the purpose of the expansion draft, he would maintain some control (the possibilities would be he remains in Winnipeg or goes to Vegas). However, what benefit would he experience by moving to Vegas?

Photo credits: Quickmeme and Wikipedia

The Jets have not been a successful franchise on the ice since their return to Winnipeg, but there is no doubt that they are on the rise and are significantly further ahead than Vegas will be when they hit the ice in October. I would argue that they are poised to enter the upper echelon of the Western Conference in the coming two years. So Enstrom may wish to leave Winnipeg for Vegas based on the winters or the nightlife, but I think it is highly unlikely he would do so for the hockey, and my speculation is that that will carry the day for Enstrom.

So let’s consider another option: what if the Jets were able to work a trade for Enstrom, perhaps to a contending team? If arrangements could be made, the Jets could pitch an excellent chance to win a Stanley Cup, by flipping Enstrom to a team like Pittsburgh. Reviewing their cap situation at nhlnumbers.com, the Penguins combine thin blueline depth with surprising cap flexibility, especially assuming the eventual departure of Marc-André Fleury this summer. Trading Enstrom to a contender like the Penguins could turn out to be a win-win situation for the both Enstrom and the Jets, but realistically would have to be considered an unlikely scenario.

In my view, however, I believe it is more likely than Enstrom waiving his No Move for the purpose of the expansion draft. If I am right, then the Jets’ decision is simple once again: expose Tyler Myers or protect 4 defensemen.