NO Saints Vs MN Vikings Divisinal Playoff Game Primer
The first Vikings season I can remember in it entirety is the magical 2009 Season where Silver Foxed Brett Favre lead us to what in my opinion was 1 Brian Urlacher blocked extra point in week 16 away from a Super Bowl ring. But that’s neither here nor there because in the end the Old Gunslinger came back around, and a cross body throw into the middle of the field was picked off by Tracey Porter and the Saints, not the Vikings advanced to face Peyton Manning and the Colts in the Super Bowl. That was then; this is now, and while Vikings players have said that the revenge game aspect of Sundays Division Championship game doesn’t mean much, if anything to them (only DE Brian Robinson was with the team then and now), it certainly means a lot to the fans. “The North never forgets.” I won’t hide my feelings, I fully expect the Vikings to come out on top on Sunday. Call me a homer, but the 13-3 Vikings opened as 4-point favorites over the 11-5 Saints. It won’t be easy but if everyone executes, I have no doubt the Vikings will come out on top. So, what is it that they need to do, what must they execute? Well first and for most, the game will ultimately revolve around one man: Drew Brees.
Who Dat’s QB:
No matter who wins the game, I can assure you one thing: Drew Brees will be talked about ad nauseum in wake the final playoff game this weekend. Brees is coming off another amazing season. The future HOF QB threw 25 TDs to only 8 INTS, going for 4334 yards at a 72% Completion Rate (Retaking his single season record that Sam Bradford passed last season). The Number that stats out the most to me is his Yards per Attempt, at 8.1. This is the first time his Y/A has been over 8 since 2011. Brees only threw the ball 536 times, a low number for him considering he’s thrown more than 600 passes in 9 of his 17 years, including every year since the 09-championship season. While his totals were low, he was extremely efficient with every attempt he made. Brees throws a beautiful ball, with plenty of strength and touch, and otherworldly accuracy.
Last week against the Panthers, Brees was at his best: 376 yards on 11.4 Y/A and 69.7% Completion Percentage, with 2 TDs and a pick. He was throwing into some very tight windows, throwing receivers open, and pump faking safeties in a vintage showing of why #9 deserves to be in all time great conversations. The Vikings cannot let Brees do that against them if they want to win. Don’t get me wrong, Drew will be balling, I would be shocked if we held him under 250 yards, but as long as he isn’t BALLIN’ they have a shot. The Vikings and Saints met all the way back in week 1, and while that was a long time ago, its still worthwhile to discuss. Brees’ line was a sharp but not razor sharp 291 yards on 7.9 Y/A and 73% completion percentage, with 1 TD. The game went 29-19 in favor of the Vikings, but was never really all that close after two Bradford (Yes Sam Bradford was the Vikings QB to start the year) threw 2 TDs in the last 4 mins and change of the first half. Brees had no support from his rushing attack, only 60 yards on 21 attempts. For Brees though, this is not an excuse, he had even less support last week against the Panthers; 40 yards on 22 attempts. The Vikings can not sit back and think that if they take away the two-headed monster of Ingram and Kamara that the game is won. The Vikings will need to pressure Brees quickly and often. Because of that the number one match up to watch will be on the edge while both teams best units are on the field. More specifically Terron Armstead Vs Everson Griffin and Ryan Ramczyk Vs. Danielle Hunter.
The EDGE Game:
One thing will always be true in football – If you give even a half decent QB a clean pocket, and time in it, he can torch a defense. This is what the Saints did more often than not this season, as they surrendered only 30 sacks on the year (in the games we’ve discussed so far, they allowed 1 sack in each game, and kept the pocket clean, only allowing Brees to be pressured on only 18% and 23% of his drop backs in week 1 and last week respectively). A lot of this has to do with the solid play of the bookends. Armstead was slightly above league average at LT and Ramczyk checking in as a top 10 tackle (#8 to be exact) according to Pro Football Focus at RT (He did spend 2 games at LT while Armstead was injured as well). Neither tackle was prone to giving up much to the defense. Armstead has been given the vote of confidence by the front office, as not to long ago, the former third rounder received a long term extension. Ramczyk meanwhile was a high-profile rookie, taken 32nd overall with the pick gotten from New England for Brandon Cooks. Coming out of the OL factory that is Wisconsin, he was considered extremely polished, and could be an All-Pro at RT in the future (where he will likely stay since the FO already extended Armstead). Going up against them are some very vicious edge guys in Griffin and Hunter. While Hunter did not take the huge step into being an elite edge defender I thought he would this year, the young physical specimen did continue to grow. Notching 7 sacks in his first season as a full time starter, the 23 year old was solid in both run and pass defense. Turning in a PFF grade of 82 for the season, the youngster continued to show he was a steal in the third round of the ’15 draft. The former LSU Tiger notched 3 pressures against Ramczyk week 1, while setting the edge to a T in the run game. Hunter’s technique has grown immensely in his 3 seasons as a pro, and he’ll need every trick in his bag against the technically sound Ramczyk.
On the other side of the line, Griffin turned in arguable his best season yet. The 30 year old USC product set a career high with 13 sacks, and lived in the backfield of opponents all season long. His first step quickness and variety of pass rushing moves should prove to be a lot to handle for the athletically gifted Armstead. Griffin also sets the edge well in the run game. If the Saints line holds up in pass coverage, Brees could make it a long afternoon for Minnesota. He was only 3-7 for 11 yards when under pressure week 1 against the Vikings, so getting to the Norlins legend is a must. But if the run game gets going, it could be al for naught.
Ingram and Kamara:
The veteran workhorse and electric rookie combined for 1852 yards on the ground and 20 TDs. To go along with that, Kamara registered a daunting 826 receiving yards and 5 TDs with Ingram pitching in a solid 416 yards. A balanced Saints offense is deadly, and the running back tandem the Saints rode into the Playoffs is capable of balancing the offense like few backfields can. Mixing big run plays and pass plays from the RB position opens the playbook wide open and Sean Payton more dangerous the creative and innovative plays he can call.
Ingram is mainly the between the tackles guy. It will be up to Linval Joseph and Tom Johnson of the Vikings interior DL to plug up the holes and allow for LBs to clean up any runs that get by them. Joseph can fill any A gap form the 1-tec DT spot as well as anyone in the game. His massive size and strength is unparalleled, and his agility and lateral quickness makes him a threat to eat up RBs going east and west on a set edge. Max Unger is one of the smartest Centers in Football, and while there isn’t a vintage Jahir Evens on either side of him Andrus Peat and Larry Warfield are no slouches on the interior. Even still though expect Joseph to command double teams most of the game while allowing Johnson to use his leaner quicker frame to generate pass rush from the 3-tec when he can get 1-on-1 matchups. It isn’t futile to try to run between the tackles, but between a stout defensive interior, and solid tackling LBs in Anthony Barr and Eric Kendricks (and rookie WLB Ben Giedion, who has been solid, but in limited snaps as he is removed from the field in nickel formation) flying through any gaps made on the line, it is going to be tough sledding between the tackles.
Kamara generally runs outside the tackles because of his incredible size-speed combination. He can beat almost anyone in the open field, so sure tackling by LBs and Ss will be important. Luckily for the Vikings, they have one of the surest tackling safeties in the NFL in All-Pro Harrison “Hitman Harry” Smith. Along with him, Trae Waynes graded out consistently well as a tackling CB in a big growing year for the former 1st rounder. All in all the Vikings will have to play fast, sound, fundamental football against the saints rushing attack to slow down a ground game that has been in decline the last few weeks. But they certainly have the talent to do so.
Skill Position Players:
I already talked a little about how the RBs line up against the LBs in the ground game, but the same can be said about the passing game. Barr and Kendricks are fast and smart, able to cover sideline to sideline in both phases of the game. I don’t like the idea of Coby Fleener Vs Barr, but if they can keep TE coverage to the safeties and Kendricks, that would go a long way to slowing down much of the Saints offence. If the passing attack has to run through the Wideouts, the Vikings just might be able to slow down drew Brees. Michael Thomas had an outstanding sophomore year proving he is a #1 option, putting up a line of 10 catches, 1245 yards and 5 TDs. He will be shadowed by All Pro CB Xavier Rhodes, who shut down everyone he faced this season (including holding Thomas to 5 catches and 45 yards week 1). Both are big physical guys, and Thomas has been especially good of late, but I just can’t Rhodes letting much get to Thomas. On the other side of the field, Waynes has a favorable match up against Ted Gin Jr. Gin had an great first year in New Orlins putting up a 53/787/4 line. Even as he ages he is a burner. But that is exactly who I would want Trae and his 4.3 speed going up against. Waynes does not have to be perfect, instead, all he has to do is stick with Gin and not let him get wide open. If he can do that, which with his speed he can, Gin’s impact will be limited, because his hands are bluntly put, poor, and he doesn’t fight for 50/50 balls as well as a bigger framed man might. Overall The Saints offense is an explosive one, but the Vikings defense has the tools and the talent to contain them, all they have to do is execute. I’ve dedicated a lot of time to talking about the better unit for each team, but of course the Vikings must also field a competitive offense, so let’s switch over.
The Vikings Offense:
The thing that will make or break the game for the Vikings on offense, is their O-Line. Through the season, the Vikings line has been positively average. They protect their signal caller well enough (with the exception of the handful of weeks straight early on where they didn’t give up a sack) and create enough room in the ground game that Latavius Murry and Jerrick McKinnon can get things going. Riley Reiff and Mike Remmers were fine additions this offseason, and defiantly an upgrade over last years dumpster fire of an O-Line. Pat Elflien has had growing pains, but overall has been a positive impact at Center. Nick Easton breaking his ankle week 16 is very disappointing, as his athleticism was a huge plus when The Vikings wanted to pull a guard. While the exact configuration of the line sans Easton is not yet known, I would speculate they will just replace Easton with Jerimiah Sirlas. They could try to get fancy and move Joe Berger from the right to the left guard spot, bump Remmers into RG and roll with Reshod Hill at RT, but that is a lot of moving parts. Both Sirlas and Hill proved consistently this year they are competent players who can seamlessly fill in, both having started multiple games due to injury. To get anywhere close to a victory, the line is going to have to hold up in pass protection, and open lanes in the run game. Cameron Jordan of the Saints might have something to say about that though.
Jordan is a legitimate DPOY candidate after posting 13 sacks and setting a fine edge in the run game all season long. The Minneapolis native looked unstoppable at times against Carolina and could be a huge issue if Reiff can not hold him by himself. The rest of the Saints Defense in my opinion is good not great. They do everything they are supposed to do, and no longer will beat themselves, as the Rob Ryan Saints were prone to do. Marshon Lattimore is the exception to this, the Ohio State Product is legitimately already one of the better Corners in the league, and can certainly stick with a teams #1 option. But Lattimore can only Cover Stephon Diggs or Adam Thielen one at a time. The unheralded duo combined for 2125 yards and 12 TD on the season. That being said the solid pass defense that Ken Crawley and Marcus William provide might be too much to Case Keenum to attack downfield too much. Because of this the run game is going to be imperative for the Vikings. That being said, Keenum as the QB will have the biggest single impact.
The Case for Case:
Keenum had an excellent season, and is in line for a huge contract in the offseason. 3547 yards at a 7.4 Y/A and 67.6% completion clip with 22 TD to only 7 INT was more than anyone could have asked from a third string QB. I have been critical of Keenum throughout the season, but he has continuously proved me wrong. I don’t think he has the arm strength to make throws into tight windows, but that has been hidden by his excellent decision making and the schemes. As long as Keenum isn’t tasked with winning the game by himself, the Vikings offense has a chance to put up some numbers. His ability to extend plays and avoid rushers will also be key, as if the line can’t hold Jordan and other back, Keenum will have to make time for routs to develop by himself. Does Case Keenum have some Joe Flacco 2013 magic in him? I don’t know, but if he does, elevating pressure off of McKinnon and Murry will go a long way to opening up the offense on a defense that is better than it would seem.
Prediction:
I see this being a close game but ultimately the Vikings will come out on top, with a predicted score of 24-20