AFC Championship Matchup Breakdown
AFC Championship Matchup Breakdown
We were treated to some incredible games last weekend and I can only hope that this week lives up to the hype I've been giving it. On the AFC side, the Jacksonville Jaguars travel to New England to take on the heavily favored Patriots for a trip to Minnesota and the Super Bowl. For New England, a win would mean a second consecutive trip to the big game and for the Jaguars, it would be the first time in franchise history. Jacksonville has been the Cinderella story of the entire season as many picked them to finish last in their division, but here they are, 60 minutes away from playing for a championship.
If you had told me at the beginning of the season that the final two quarterbacks in the AFC would be Tom Brady and Blake Bortles, I would have mortgaged my house to bet against it! Thank goodness that never happened. This matchup is about far more than simply the quarterbacks though, so let's jump into the breakdown.
Jacksonville Jaguars AT New England Patriots
Line: Patriots -9
Both teams looked impressive this past weekend with the Patriots easily taking care of business against the Tennessee Titans and the Jaguars dispatching the Pittsburgh Steelers 45-43 in a game that was not nearly as close as the score would indicate. Both teams did exactly what they need to in order to come away with the victory as the Patriots easily stopped Marcus Mariota and the Titans running game, while Jacksonville ran the ball all over the Steelers and were able to nurse an early lead. I doubt anyone outside of Jacksonville believed at the start of this season that the Jaguars would be one game away from the Super Bowl, but here we are.
How New England Wins
New England will have this game in the bag within the first five minutes if they are able to stop Leonard Fournette and the Jaguars run game. If there's one thing that I know for certain, it's that Bill Belichick and the Patriots defense are going to force Blake Bortles to win the game. Bortles hasn't shown that he can win a game on his own so far this season and I expect Belichick to capitalize on this and force the young quarterback to try to win the game. Expect lots of eight and nine man fronts from the Patriots in an attempt to slow down Fournette and the potent Jags running game.
The second key for the Patriots is going to be keeping a solid pocket for Tom Brady. Jacksonville has a great pass-rush and Brady has been known to fold under heavy pressure from defensive linemen in the past, so if the Jaguars are able to push the pocket up into Brady's face, an upset could be brewing. I expect a heavy dose of Dion Lewis in this game to help the Patriots offensive line hold up against the Jaguars pass-rush. Staying out of third-and-long will go a long way for the Patriots as that has been when Jacksonville's defense has been able to force bad throws and turn games sideways.
How Jacksonville Wins
The first key for Jacksonville is to score early and keep Tom Brady off the field. Quite literally the opposite of what the Patriots hope to happen. The Jaguars will need to keep the New England defense on the field as much as possible to shorten the game and tire that defensive front out. Jacksonville has a shot to win this game if they can keep Blake Bortles in short yardage situations and beat up on a relatively weak Patriots front seven. If Fournette averages four or so yards per carry, the Patriots will have a very long day trying to stop the LSU product. I know Jacksonville is coming off of a 45-point outing, but I don't see the Jaguars competing with Tom Brady in a shootout. The lower the score in this one, the higher probability of a Jaguars upset.
The second key will be to stop tight-end Rob Gronkowski. Gronk has been a force to be reckoned with all season and I expect this game to be no different. Gronk poses such a mismatch whether it's going against smaller safeties or slower linebackers. Jacksonville will have to bracket Gronk in order to stop him, which could open up lanes for receivers Brandin Cooks on the outside and Danny Amendola in the middle of the field. Jacksonville has the talent to matchup one-on-one with the receivers, but Gronk will be the nightmare matchup the entire game.
Key Matchup
There are so many different key matchups in this one, whether it's the offensive line vs defensive line, or Fournette against the Patriots front seven, or Brandin Cooks against Jalen Ramsey, but the thing that I think this game comes down to is the gameplan. So with that being said, the key matchup in this one will be BIll Belichick vs Doug Marrone. We all know how prolific Belichick has been at exploiting weaknesses and crushing mismatches in the past so it falls on Doug Marrone to come up with a gameplan for this Jacksonville Jaguars team that will be able to matchup well against the Patriots.
The only way that I see the Jaguars pulling off an upset is with a heavy dose of Leonard Fournette and a defense that is able to put Tom Brady and this prolific Patriots offense in uncomfortable situations. If Blake Bortles has to throw the ball more than 25 times in the game, then the Patriots will almost assuredly win the game. Nobody expects a Jaguars win, but if it does happen, it will be one of the greatest upsets in NFL history.
Prediction
Patriots 27 - Jaguars 12
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I think the Jags are gonna win they have the defense to beat the Pats. They are going to apply pressure on Brady and make him rush that's where he makes mistakes. They'll beat them just like the Dolphins did on Monday night, gonna play man on man and pressure Brady
That's I think what all Pats fans are worried about. The Jags have the ability to do so. Should be an awesome game.
Yes it should...Go Jags!!!!
Blake Bortles running game has been impressive thus far and the Jags D might just pull an upset!
Rooting for the jags but I don’t think they will stand a chance. Yes, the Jaguars have the defense that can beat the Patriots or really any team for that matter. What they don’t have is a competent quarterback that they can rely on. Belichick will shut that offense down. Shut down Fournette and force the game to be placed in Bortles hands. Right where they want him. I expect the pats to force multiple turnovers and win this 28-10
If Tom Brady wins another Superbowl I am going to have to start eating his food, you can get Tom Brady's food delivered to your house so you can eat the same thing as Tom eats, it's called TB12, it probably costs a fortune but at this point I don't care.
If Gronk and Amendola are feeling good it should be no contest, Tom is a man on a mission, a man who cannot lose. If he loses the Gisele won't let him play football anymore, she can't make him quit as long as he is winning Superbowls though.
I think he needs a few more concussions before anything is going to take him down.
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Lot of points, but Tommy Terrific at home, tough to bet against.
Definitely agree and I actually think betting the Pats -9 is perfectly reasonable, but I could also see the Jags going up early.
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Wow great post you shared thanks for it :)