RE: [Discussion Post] Should we stay locked down for the COVID-19 pandemic or open up?
People in at risk groups are doing a good job isolating themselves. Even if we ended the government imposed lock down, we will see at risk groups staying in self-imposed isolation.
Businesses do not want their employees getting sick. We will see all businesses engaged in extra sanitation measures and continuing with isolation efforts and still wearing masks.
I think the debate should include science about our immune system response. Human immune systems seem to work best during the Spring and Summer.
If the US delayed the lock down until Fall, we would miss the best window for an immune response.
The lock down only slowed the spread of the disease. The disease is going to creep through all of homes and communities. This is especially true of people living in apartments, urban areas or in crowded neighborhoods.
The schedule for removing the lockdown should be determined by local communities. Communities at the peak of the outbreak might want to hold off on ending the lock down.
BTW, some businesses like the NBA will have a hard time reviving because sane people will not go to such big ticket events.
Sit down restaurants will have a hard time getting their customers back.
I favor ending the government imposed lockdown.
I think your point about immune system response is HUGE. It is good to build immunity while that is on our side. In addition, the fall and winter come with flu season. If we have not built immunity by that point, we will likely see a lot more deaths with the two illnesses happening at the same time.
I agree with you about local communities deciding how to proceed.
The thing we call "flu season" might be a result of our immune system. It is likely that our immune system follows the seasons. We are more likely to get the flu in the winter because our immune systems aren't active in the winter.
We can see this in vitamin D. Vitamin D is activated by direct sunlight on our skin. We do not have as much activated vitamin D in the winter. Because our immune systems are open, people are more prone to get the flu.
Do some web searches on vitamin D and the immune system. Nestled among all the companies trying to sell supplements, you will occasionally find a decent article about the immune system.
Good point about the seasonality of the immune system. Another component is the recent concern that the healthcare system might be overwhelmed if a second COVID-19 wave hits in the fall at the same time as the flu returns. Along with possibly harnessing the seasonality of the immune system, opening up now could also separate the two threats and balance the load on the healthcare system.
I agree about businesses like the NBA. In order to survive, it seems like they might need to space out the seats, limit the arenas to smaller crowds, and raise ticket prices.
If "The flu season" is caused by seasonal variations in our immune system; then we might want to think about the way that we respond to the flu. Right now we face flu like it was something caused by a specific virus and that we have to fight that specific virus. If it is being caused by natural fluctuations in our immune response; then we should adjust our approach to the season and develop a regime for immune system enhancement instead of just a vaccine aimed at a specific virus.