RE: Are the Yellow Vests Controlled Opposition?
Why do all nation-states, even the obviously failed states such as Venezuela and Zimbabwe, maintain a court of law? The ignorant passions of those who perceive injustice can vent their grievances (and resources) in the byzantine legal matrix, rather than shedding blood on the streets, for redress of their complaints. Thus, the most civilized states of the world expend enormous resources in maintaining the perception of "independent" judiciary, "fair" legal outcomes, and "universally" applicable laws. Given this sociopolitical matrix, those who deviate from the expected avenues of grievance release can be easily categorized as malcontents and degenerates that need to be crushed beneath the jackboot of the internal security apparatus.
These "yellow vests" were unlicensed protesters, when they began their riots. Any competent political ruler would have responded with massive force to quell the potential uprising before it could grow and spread. Macron, obviously, is not competent, as he is nothing more than a glorified accountant. But the French bureaucrats are competent, and have channeled what could have been a bloody disorder, into the now organized, scheduled, expected gatherings of social discontents, conveniently on weekends when productive workers are not bothered. "Yellow vests" are not a movement, as much as it is a rock concert and a minor nuisance.
While destroying the protests with nominal force would have ended them, it would have had consequences that have been avoided. There seems to be significant populations that have confidence that government is merely misguided, and not venal profiteers. Such violent repression may well have backfired, and actual guillotines fired up, rather than merely the memes.
France does have significant armed 'peasants' despite the general disarming, enough to definitely heat things up and drag in the military - which has forewarned Macron that the primary cause of complaint of the hoi polloi is intolerable, unenforceable, and just not going to happen. Of course I mean the Migration Pact, rather than the carbon tax. The latter was just more palatable to protesters, who face significant cognitive dissonance over racial and cultural homogeneity issues.
Macron will have to replace his generals before he might find some that will lead the French military against it's citizens, and just as the US military would face ~50% desertion, saboteurs, and transfers of it's arsenal to civilians in such a scenario, the French do also.
As you point out, allowing the steam to blow off in relatively trivial acting up prevents morale from triggering actual revolution, which either significant concessions, or violent repression, would do.
Thanks!
That's a good point. The chances are that people will get bored when nothing changes and see little point in turning up at the rallies. It could likely fizzle out given enough time.
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The French have a sort of traditional protest culture, centered on students, but also including several other demographics, like their teachers. Traditionally, when school breaks for the summer, protest season begins, and this is what Yellowjackets are expecting to happen.
May 22 IIRC (not looking at a calendar atm) is expected to usher in a new era, as the core working class component that has endured winter protests is boosted by fresh blood and good weather. Few of them are expecting swift results, and morale seems high, despite the injuries, MSM blackout (and French media disinfo), and lack of traction.
Only time, as you say, will tell.
That could be an interesting. I'll have to try and remember to keep any eye out. I didn't realise about the protest culture. I guess we're looking at seasoned protesters who know how to stay the course.
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Examples in history suggests that repression via overwhelming force is highly effective in quelling potential riots and revolts. Even in your recent US history provides clear evidence of ruling through the iron fist over "negotiating" with the ignorant muck. When Matin Luther King was assainated and race riots threated major US cities, the mayor of Detroit pled with the would be rioters resulting in his city burning to the ground, and Detroit becoming the ruin that it is today. The mayor of Chicago declared virtual martial law and informed would be rioters that they would be shot on sight; Chicago is a thriving metropolis today. Any ruler who would stoop to begging his rebellious subjects for peace ought to first slit his wife's throat and smother his children before attempting such suicidal insanity.
Men need to be governed, not coddled. France has in possession the best mercenary army in the world: Legion estrangere. Macron need not even muster native French soldiers to lockdown Paris. As for the French generals and officers, they are loyal to their paymasters in French bureaucracy and would be unwilling to risk their previleged position, in some high risk low reward gamble, by siding with disorganized mob of over-emotional rabble.
It is fortunate that the yellow vest protests will be nothing more than a footnote in obscure French historical trivia. Macron's incompetence may have saved gallons of French blood. Their next master may not be so accomodating, however.
I note the French are the source of particularly poignant quote regarding riots and repression: Let them eat cake.
The Bastille and bastinado do not always suppress dissent. The West is undergoing replacement, and is not simply unaware and complacent about it. Things will continue to develop, and we will see what comes of it. My expectation presently is that Macron has little interest in pressing harder, as long as the Yellow Vests don't.