SHAMBOLIC AND CHAOTIC – A Very British Brexit

Two years on and Britain is still a divided country over Brexit.

BBC

The past two years has seen a floundering, weak government attempting to put together an acceptable deal. The entire endeavor has been an unmitigated disaster for the ruling Conservative (Tory) Party:

riven apart by hard Brexiteers and soft ones;

due to a vote they didn’t expect to win;

with zero plans for a Leave vote;

it has put the question of the Irish border back on the table;

it has kept the Scottish nationalist question from going away;

and following a disastrous election they now require the support of the Northern Irish unionists to stay in power.

Irish Times

This week both Airbus and BMW warned the UK that investments in the UK could be jeopardised due to uncertainties over Brexit. BMW, who employ 8,000 workers in the UK, is demanding clarity by the end of the summer. Meanwhile Airbus, who employ 14,000 workers, threatened to leave the UK if Britain were to exit the single market and customs union without a transition deal. Businesses are assessing the UK as risky due to Brexit and fears of severe disruption and interruption of UK production run high in closed circles. Airbus claims this is not fear mongering but reality dawning.

Now, at the weekend 100,000 demonstrators marched in London to demand a final Brexit deal vote. There is a sense that Brexit is not a done deal. Among those addressing the rally was Gina Miller, who successfully campaigned to ensure the UK could not trigger talks on leaving without the approval of Parliament. Tory Brexiteers were alarmed that this would compromise the government’s negotiating stance with the EU. One minister resigned over the issue, stating that he “cannot, in all good conscience, support how our country’s exit from the EU looks set to be delivered”. source

Getty

Facing a vote of no-confidence, the Prime Minister Theresa May fudged yet another poor compromise. Leader of the Tory rebels, Dominic Grieve, announced that he would vote for the government’s amendment on the strength of a statement to the effect that it would be up to the Speaker to decide whether MPs could amend a motion if no deal is reached by 21 January. source

However, this summer there will be a series of important votes on customs and trade, each with the potential to deepen the rift in the Tory Party. The threat of a no-confidence vote is very real. A take it or leave it vote is scheduled for the end of the year.

Ultimately, May will either force through a deal that pleases no-one, or, collapse in the face of a parliamentary revolt. Trapped in equal terror between its own maniacal base and the prospect of a fresh election, the pro-EU wing of the Tories has once again stepped back from a decisive showdown. The only question is how long before events force it to take the plunge.

Protester Richard Stanley with his Brexit poo sign
Photograph: Antonio Olmos for the Observer

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