America is going to war in the next 4 years

Some background:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/hillary-clinton-unpopular-poll_us_57c6fe23e4b0a22de0936fae

Hillary will win.

I'm going to go ahead and call the election. But if I'm wrong, we go to war anyway because eventually someone in NK insults the size of Trump's penis and we start nuking them. So this is assuming we don't go the Trump / penis joke route.

Hillary is hated

The right in America hates Hillary as if she was Satan, Hitler, and Stalin all at once. The left takes issue with her as a bought and paid-for war hawk. The bought and paid-for part is kind of a given - that's how America works - so the only real thing they can call her on is being a war hawk. Which is fair, since she seems to be at the center of all recent American conflicts.

Note: I'm not casting moral judgement on this. I'm usually on the hawkish side.

China is being a massive dick to our allies

Japan is rebuilding their military in response to China. The Philippines is re-opening Clark air-force base to Americans. Vietnam got over our prior battles and is signing trade and ARMS treaties with the USA. I was in Hanoi when they paraded new weapons from the west down the street.

In the middle of this buildup, China is being a massive dick with their 7 dash line. In Vietnam, the people complain about toxic, cancerous, chemical infested food from China. China considers Vietnam a provincial vassal state that should pay tribute. And don't forget - after the Vietnam/American war, it was CHINA that invaded, rolled up to Hanoi, and basically took a shit there just to prove they could.

Hillary has to worry about re-election in 4 years.

Remember George HW Bush? That idiot was cratering hard as a president. The general stupidity of him and his whole administration is basically legendary. And yet he got re-elected. The reason why - WAR. Americans don't like to change presidents in war.

For Hillary, going to war offers a ton of benefits.

1. The general reluctance of the American public to change presidents will be in her favor
2. It's hard to whine about a war hawk when you're already at war. It's no longer relevant
3. Republicans are more likely to vote for her - what, you want to vote against the strength of America?
4. War tends to boost the Economy. A war with China also appeals to the Trump electorate. Jobs jobs jobs!

China is more worth fighting than Russia

China's farther away and more alien - it's an easier sell. And China, thanks to their great firewall, puts themselves and their people in a terrible position to respond to the PR in an intelligent way.

Double bonus: Outside of their immediate neighbors, China has actually been doing a good job with foreign diplomacy and investment. Striking China down would help the USA keep these China friendly countries in line. Dick move by the USA? Absolutely. But that's kind of the USA's international calling card when it comes to these things.

Plus, China is surrounded by our allies who HATE them. Japan and China have been mortal enemies for centuries. The Philippines is getting plenty of reasons to despise China and is headed by Rodrigo Duterte. He likes his roving death squads. He got elected by the open promise of mass executions of internal criminals who fucked with his people's safety. I don't think he'll have much problem signing up to go to war against China who keeps harassing honest fishermen

And of course, Vietnam. Vietnam sees china as an ongoing threat to sovereignty. China is NOT popular with the common people or the government. War would be a laughably easy sell.

China is easier to cripple than Russia

Most of China's important targets are right along their coast, while America's Navy is by far the largest and most powerful in the world. With American allies helping to control most of the coastal waters, striking at China's ports and port cities wouldn't be difficult. The biggest advantage of china - population - is neutralized. America HATES bodybags so the ability to rain down death - at range - is an important consideration for any American war. War with Russia means American bodies on the ground (and thus, in the ground). A Naval war not so much. Plus, sailors lost at sea don't result in pictures of body parts strewn across the ground. The seas swallow all the evidence of carnage.

Xi Jinping isn't helping

His regime has been very nationalist and very bent on ignoring the the expectations and desires of the rest of the world. He may not step down from power. Xi rules more and more as an autocrat, one determined to gain power for china in the region. Xi is reshaping their military in order to project power. So China, like the USA has interest in violence.

For the record: I think the war STARTS with China vs Japan. Then we get pulled in.

I'm not saying I like this outcome

I'm just saying that this is what I think will happen. Sorry if I made you depressed.