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RE: Trump's Favorite Pollster Says He's Losing by 12
Pools can be very tricky. I think that Reps could win if Dems do similar mistakes as in 2016. One mistake was a lack of more inspiring storytelling and communication.
Regarding "October surprise", one can see it now when it comes to executive order regarding police reform.
Pools are tricky. Be sure to walk, not run, around them!