The geopolitics of the new Mexico: By Jorge Trevino
Mexico's last general elections held on July 1, 2018, switched a 30-year neoliberal pro-American governments for a left nationalist new one after an astounding victory that gave the 3 times presidential candidate Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO) an overwhelming victory of 53% of the votes that delivered to him 307 MP's in the lower house (out of 500), 58 senators in the upper (out of 100) and 5 state’s governemts out of 9 that held elections on the same day.
Amlo's victory re-shaped the Mexican political system beating the right and center-right parties (PAN and PRI) with a left-wing coalition (Morena) that broke out 30 years of neo-American colonialism right on America's back-yard in the south of Texas.
The implications for the US are huge, its third trade partner ($557 billion dollars a year, being China and Canada first and second) will no longer be the docile partner of the last 30 years. Amlo's new policy of "Make Mexico great again" will re-shape Mexico switching for a more balanced partnering with the US and looking for strategic partnerships in Latinamerica and Asia (China, Japan and South Korea) who to deal with.
Amlo's taking office will occur on December the 1st but his Morena's fellows in Congress are taking over today.
Amlo's and Trump's policies, although different and contradictory on the overall, they coincide in something essential for Trump: He wants to stop illegal Mexican immigration to the US and Amlo wants to stop Mexicans having to leave for lack of domestic opportunities: "I want people to stop leaving on necessity but voluntarily, if they want". Mexico's illegal immigration to the US has been a profit for both countries over decades. On the one hand, Mexico gets rid of domestic unemloyment, social pressures and political unrest, whereas Mexican arcs get billions of dollars on remittances every year. On the other hand, the US has gotten cheap labour force down-grading domestic purchase power on it and growing the profits of their businesses! On the dark side of the moon side, the US gets tonnes of cheap illegal drugs while Mexico receives the weaponry the drug cartels use for their killing: The perfect lose-lose relationship that humankind can find! The drug cartels exporting drugs to intoxicate the American youth with the Americans getting the big cash for the weaponry supplies the cartels use to kill people on the Mexican streets!
If plans go according to Amlo's plan, things might change rapidly! For the first time in recent history Amlo education's, scholarship's, energy, transport, healthcare, age care and infrastructure projects might rebalance the power relationships in Mexico and, as a consequence, the place of Mexico in worldwide geopolitics. No more Mexico's docile stance toward the US and Mexico can be back on business with the rest of the world: China, South Korea and Japan, in Asia, Brazil, Argentina and the Central American republics, could get a toll-free approach for business in Mexic.
Indeed, Mexico's new direction will face the fury of the Trump administration. But being the US in wedges with half of humanity in China, North Korea, the Philippines, Indonesia, Russia, Iran, Syria, Turkey, Germany and the EU, American capabilities look diminished, to say the least!
This week Amlo met the whole bunch of Latin American ambassadors in Mexico City for a salute and business chat. Amlo wants to resume Mexico’s historical links with the south (lost for 30 years of neoliberalism!) and include the Central American republics in joint negotiations with the US to stop migration by creating opportunities for the region. No one talks about it, but Mexico gets huge waves of illegal immigration from Central America in their-transit to the US and is not rare that after a few failed attempts to cross into the US unsuccessfully, many of them remain in Mexico. At the same time Amlo wants to re-launch the Mexican oil industry (forgotten after 30 years of right-wing governments trying to privatize it!) and not only reset the 6 oil refineries Mexico has, but to build at least 1 more, and take Mexico back into big leagues of the oil industry in the world. Something that for sure will cause Western (the US, British, Spain and Dutch) hysteria. Make no mistake, the huge interests that Amlo will interfere with will make him and his country a target for a regime change color revolution sponsored, planned and fund in Washinghton’s catacumbs.
With Black Rock and international rating agencies already down-grading Mexico’s economy and currency (even before Amlo’s taking over) out of the blue, we know that the stakes in here are huge and that the Global Financial Institutions will no doubt in taking a fight.
Only one thing: With the US sanctioning and tariffing countries foes, competitors and "allies", it's plausible for the US to be sanctioned and tariffed by a good amount of them. And if that happens, the US leverage in the world can tumble fast and hard.
One thing is certain, American every day's sanctions and tariffs against the world, shows up American current weak stance in global politics. When soft power and diplomacy step aside is because, historically speaking, the Empire is collapsing. And yes, if the US doesn't turn 180° degrees then the US will be a museum relic by the next decade.
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