The end of the world

The phrase “turning point” is overused, but future historians are likely to view the year 2016 as exactly that. The standout event was Donald Trump’s surprise victory. The maverick Republican’s defeat of Hillary Clinton produced a shock that reverberated around the world. The billionaire’s White House tenancy begins on 20 January. Many will dub that date Black Friday, fearful that Trumpism may irreparably damage international security, environmental protection and human rights. Others will see it as a sign of welcome change. It will be a year of living dangerously.

Yet 2016 was remarkable for many other reasons – good and bad. The fightback against Islamic State in Syria and Iraq gathered pace, even as terrorist atrocities took lives from Nice to Jakarta. A peace deal was signed in Colombia, ending the world’s longest-running insurgency. The European Union was thrown into confusion by Britain’s vote to leave. The Paris agreement marked a breakthrough on climate change.

Elections and referendums
Trump’s protectionist, isolationist stance brought into question the inevitability of globalisation, suggesting a return to a pre-1939 age of economic nationalism, punitive tariffs, trade barriers, controls on movement of labour and capital, closed markets and minds.

Many hope Trump will take a more pragmatic, less iconoclastic line. But he questioned the usefulness of international institutions such as the United Nations, the World Bank and Nato. He cast doubt on key security alliances in Asia. Trump also ignited concern for April’s Paris climate change deal.

Trump’s stated support for the unilateral waging of war, for authoritarian governance, torture, indefinite detention without trial, and religious and racial profiling of immigrants and refugees could, if copied, destroy the universal legal and human rights protections erected via the UN system since 1945.

The first world leader Trump spoke to after his victory was Egypt’s military coup leader, Abdel Fatah al-Sisi, giving a chilling insight into his priorities.

Britain’s narrow 52%-48% referendum vote in June in favour of leaving the EU was unexpected. Many drew parallels with the US, saying similar nationalist, populist forces were at work, fuelled by anger that globalisation and accompanying immigration were undermining low-paid workers’ way of life.