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RE: Is China’s Day of Reckoning Coming?
A lot of the 'devaluation' will be 'sterilized' by a rapid increase in demand and deepening of the Chinese sovereign bond market. The shift will come from China maintaining its REER -- Real Effective Exchange Rate -- to keep non-U.S. trade flowing and those countries replacing USD reserves with CNY-based reserves.
That's what the gold-backed petroyuan contract is all about. They are expanding that into its LME business for other important industrial metals, creating yuan-denominated futures markets.
The US-China trade is just so huge. It will be a feat if China manages to maintain its REER by expanding Yuan-denominated non-US trade. It think that is a long play while the short/medium term will be rough going b/c so much of China's trade is with the US.