Recession probability.

So I've often posted the NBER recession probability model using four major economic indicators. There's another recession model that solely uses GDP.

It relies on the fact that recessions and expansions tend to be persistent such that you are unlikely to see wild variation in GDP quarter to quarter.

This model tends to indicate a recession when it gets above 67%.

For those curious, the first quarter of 2022 got up to 37%.

The most recent reading suggests the first quarter of 2024 had a probability of being a recession of only 4%.