NBA Bets #18

in #nba5 years ago

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Today's potential bets :

Over Rebounds Nikola Jokic (Cut 10.5, odd 1.763): A clear difference of the number of rebounds took by Jokic with or without Millsap and Millsap has been ruled out for this game

Over Rebounds Myles Turner (Cut 6.5, odd 1.704): The cut is based on Turner average. But Cleveland is poor in the paint without Thompson and Turner is on fire lately.

Over Rebounds Dewayne Dedmon (No information yet): The Wizards are weak in the paint and the opposite Center often take a lot more rebounds than his average. It will depend on the cut & the odd the bookies give him.

Previous Week results :

I only started to post again at the end of the week, so very few bets until now, figures to analyse with wisdom :-).

DateBetStakeOddResultBookie
14/12Under 10.5 RB Jokic151.819-15Pinnacle
14/12Under 6.5 RB Morris151.925+13.88Pinnacle
14/12Over 8.5 RB Allen151.684-15Pinnacle
15/12Over 11.5 RB Gobert151.775+11.62Pinnacle
15/12Under 5.5 RB Morris152.09+16.35Pinnacle

December results

BetsWonLostPushStakedResultROI
53207511.8515.8%

What analyses to keep from this week ?

You can only see 2 of them but I placed 3 bets with the exact same analyse. Al Horford is one of the most important player of the C's, even if in this team, nobody, even Kyrie Irving, is necessary for a win. They have a great team play that make everybody replaceable. Horford is playing as a fake Center, something between a real 5 and a 4. When they play together with Morris, it's for me even Morris that is more close to filling that role in the paint. What is that meaning regarding the rebounds ? It means that without Horford, Theis and Baynes replace him, and they are both real Centers. Morris is then naturally playing much more as a 4, and is a bit less present in the paint, taking less rebounds.

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