NASA circumspect about Elon Musk’s Mars 2024 mission plan
NASA is circumspect about SpaceX founder Elon Musk’s latest bid to send crewed missions to Mars by 2024 — more than a decade ahead of what the American agency plans.
During his 43-minute speech in Adelaide on Friday, the South African-born tech billionaire said he wanted crews on Mars in just 7 years time, in 2024, with the first cargo flights in 2022.
It is a different concept to the mid 2030s plan being pursued by NASA.
Musk wants to land two cargo ships on Mars in 2022 which would identify any available water, and any hazards that could impair human settlement.
The 2022 cargo mission would also put in place power, mining, and life-support infrastructure for future flights.
In 2024 two crew ships would carry the first humans to Mars while two cargo vessels would bring more equipment and supplies. That second mission would set up a rocket fuel production plant and begin a colony base for later expansion and colonisation of the planet.
The ability to make rocket fuel on Mars is vital both for return journeys from the planet and for local needs. Musk plans to achieved this by harvesting carbon dioxide from the Mars atmosphere and available water to create methane and oxygen.
Billionaire entrepreneur and founder of SpaceX Elon Musk speaks at the 68th International Astronautical Congress 2017 in Adelaide on Friday. Photo: AFP
Billionaire entrepreneur and founder of SpaceX Elon Musk speaks at the 68th International Astronautical Congress 2017 in Adelaide on Friday. Photo: AFP
His speech on Friday sidestepped what is a key factor in NASA’s approach. NASA says humankind first needs to learn to live in space entirely independently of contact with Earth before going to Mars. In fact this is necessary for ventures beyond the Moon. It means troubleshooting problems on the spot.
Unlike the Apollo, missions to the Moon, there would be no umbilical cord to Planet Earth, and no ready help when you say: “Houston, we have a problem”.
In an interview with The Australian late last year, the man leading NASA’s charge to the red planet, Jason Crusan, said travelling to Mars meant breaking dependence on the logistics chain of supply and resupply, available to near-Earth missions, and dependence on people on the ground. You can listen to Chris Griffith’s interview with Jason Crusan here.
Crusan, the director of advanced exploration systems at NASA, said this involved not only making rocket propellant on Mars, but growing food, recycling human waste and water, dealing with health problems, conducting medical operations, repairing machines, building power infrastructure — everything.
Sometimes Mars is incredibly far from Earth. As independent planets hurtling around the Sun at different speeds, the distance between Earth and Mars varies wildly from 54 million km to about 401 million km, when the two planets are on opposite sides of the Sun.
Mars is far from being a near neighbour at that time. In fact the maximum distance between Earth and Mars is 2.6 times the Earth-Sun distance.
So those on Mars will experience long periods of isolation and self sustainability from Earth is necessary. Travellers would be there for years.
Crusan said NASA’s plan was not to go directly to Mars. Journeying would involve missions to either or both our moon and Mars’ moons, notably the near moon Phobos. “We need to learn how to operate away from the comfort of Earth. We don’t have an opportunity to learn that if we go straight to Mars.”
Equipment for Mars initially could be tested on the International Space Station, but the big tests must happen farther afield.
“We’re going to demonstrate operations far away from Earth. We want to demonstrate the propulsion systems we have.”
That might mean building a habitat on the Moon where NASA and its astronauts could hone the arts of surviving.
Crusan said NASA’s final journey to Mars might be launched from Phobos. “If you go to the surface of Phobos, 65 per cent of the sky is Mars. It also blocks over 30 per cent of the radiation environment.
“Scientists believe Phobos is made up of 20 per cent water as well. If there is a large concentration of water around Phobos, we could harvest the water there and make rocket fuel. That may fundamentally change how we land on the surface of Mars.”
Phobos would be a giant refuelling centre for Mars in the sky.
NASA proposes these missions take place in the 2020s before the final Mars assault in the 2030s.
Musk’s is a more direct option, but not so detailed.
A computer generated illustration of Space X’s BFR rocket. Photo: AFP
A computer generated illustration of Space X’s BFR rocket. Photo: AFP
In a statement provided to The Australian on the weekend, when asked about the 2024 plan, NASA wouldn’t buy into whether Musk’s timetable was viable.
“NASA is excited to see continued global interest in moving human exploration farther into the solar system, including Mars,” the statement said.
It warned that both getting to Mars and surviving there would take lots of preparation.
“A sustainable crew presence in deep space will require the best of NASA, our international partners and the private sector.”, it said. “Therefore, the agency is studying the deep space gateway concept with US industry and space station partners for potential future collaborations.”
While NASA contracts SpaceX to ferry cargo to the International Space Station, it is building its own rocket systems to take humans to Mars. It will be a competitor to Musk’s new fully reusable rocket, nicknamed BFR.or big f**king rocket.
“We will use our heavy-lift Space Launch System (SLS) rocket and the Orion spacecraft in the vicinity of the Moon, where we will build the gateway, and prepare for human Mars exploration,” NASA said.
An artist’s impression of Musk’s BFR rocket on the moon. Photo: SpaceX via AP
An artist’s impression of Musk’s BFR rocket on the moon. Photo: SpaceX via AP
“Using the most powerful rocket in the world, we would launch a power and propulsion element, habitation module for crew, and logistics module for the gateway in the early missions of SLS and Orion.
“Later, on a single SLS mission, we would launch a proposed deep space transport to the gateway, which would be used for crewed missions to Mars,” the statement said.
NASA however is facing pressure from the Trump administration to get to Mars sooner.
President Donald Trump says he wants humans on Mars during his presidency. If Trump survives 2 terms, that means before early 2025. Musk’s 2024 plan, if successful, would meet that deadline.
Trump’s determination to bring the timetable forward was on show in April during a call to celebrated NASA astronaut Peggy Whitson who was aboard the ISS at the time.
When told the plan was for the mid 2030s, Trump replied: “Well, we want to try and do it during my first term or, at worst, during my second term, so we’ll have to speed that up a little bit, OK?,” say reports of the conversation.
The Trump administration has mostly maintained NASA’s funding, but there is no indication of more money that would speed things up as the president wants. In any case, the Mars timetable seems as much about getting there safely and surely, as it is about cash.
NASA astronaut Peggy Whitson is helped out of the Soyuz MS-04 spacecraft just minutes after she and other astronauts landed in a remote area in Kazakhstan last month. Photo: Bill Ingalls/NASA via Getty Images.
NASA astronaut Peggy Whitson is helped out of the Soyuz MS-04 spacecraft just minutes after she and other astronauts landed in a remote area in Kazakhstan last month. Photo: Bill Ingalls/NASA via Getty Images.
SpaceX is throwing its resources into building the BFR which will be capable of all types of space missions, not just ones to Mars.
It will generate cash from launching satellites and ferrying cargo to the International Space Station. It will have a large payload of up to 150 tons (136 tonnes) for carrying goods from Earth into orbit. That’s five times the 30 ton limit for his Falcon heavy rocket. A larger payload means less cost to SpaceX customers.
That’s how Musk plans to generate funds for his Mars assault. “We believe we can do this (Mars) with the revenue that we receive launching satellites and for servicing the space station,” Musk said.
He said the launch cost of BFR would be less than any of SpaceX’s other rockets as its components were fully reusable. No actual costs were provided.
Another plan, to use the BFR to ferry passengers around Earth in a little over half an hour from New York to Shanghai, would also feed the bottom line.
A BFR on a full tank could travel from Earth’s orbit to the Moon and back. It could help establish a lunar base. “It’s 2017, we should have a lunar base by now, what the hell is going on?”, he said.
NASA has conducted psycholigcal research with a crew of 6 living for 8 months in a Mars-line habitat at Mauna Loa volcano, Big Island, Hawaii. Photo: University of Hawaii via AP
NASA has conducted psycholigcal research with a crew of 6 living for 8 months in a Mars-line habitat at Mauna Loa volcano, Big Island, Hawaii. Photo: University of Hawaii via AP
In its Mars transit configuration, BFR would have 40 cabins holding up to 100 people, with large common and entertainment areas, central storage, a galley, and a solar storm shelter for what would be a 3 to 6 month journey.
In the fuel tank there would be 240 tons of methane, which SpaceX advocates using rather than liquid hydrogen for rocket propellant, and 860 tons of liquid oxygen.
That at least gets Musk’s passengers to Mars. We’re yet to see the fine print of how they will survive there for years, and how a colony would be constructed. Some suggest a colony could be built on Mars using 3D printers.
In the end, Musk does admit his timetable for humans to Mars is “aspirational”.
But it’s game on. He said developing and building the BFR is already happening. “The tooling for the main tanks has been ordered, the facility is being built, we’ll start construction of the first ship around the second quarter of next year, so in about 6 to 9 months we should start building the first ship.”
While his plans look sketchy, and his timetable extremely ambitious, people are not dismissing Musk’s 2024 aspiration to visit Mars as Martian pie in the sky. He has a lot of street credibility.
SpaceX already has remarkable achievements under its belt. It’s created rockets that just don’t burn up in the upper atmosphere. They land so they can be used again. There’s been 16 successful Falcon 9 landings. And the ability of a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket to land on a barge is breathtaking. Watch the video. No one else has achieved that.
Whether he makes 2024 or not, Musk’s plans will increase public enthusiasm for visiting Mars, and investment in his BFR project.
That investment will have earthly spin-offs, such as an acceleration in improving battery storage for renewable energy, which will be needed for colonising Mars. That will have the obvious spin-off of renewables becoming a more constant energy source on Earth.
We’ll need to see the fine print of his colonisation plans.
Lockheed Martin meanwhile has revealed plans for a single-stage reusable lander that will help NASA reach the red planet under its 2030s timetable. The lander would ferry people back and forth from an orbiter to the Martian surface.
NASA too is working with six companies to develop ground concepts and prototypes for deep space habitats — environments that will sustain human life in space for long periods.
The six are Bigelow Aerospace, Boeing, Lockheed Martin, Orbital ATK, Sierra Nevada Corporation’s Space Systems and NanoRacks.