One buyer can have a big impact - SteemMonsters Prices on a sustained 3 day uptrend

in #monstermarket6 years ago (edited)

MonsterWorld 6.png

Just did a check of the prices and ran them through the system to return all 4 indicators I keep track of... all of them were up showing a general consensus that prices are up. If you have been paying attention all the commons are up and all the EPICS that is what is primarily reflected in the data.

Since 7/22 the prices have steadily gone upwards. back on the 21st there was an unsustainable spike and it went back down and then kept traveling upwards since then.

ONE BUYER

Starting about 5 hours ago ONE BUYER
@stuttgart bought about 154steem worth of what seems like mostly epics and commons maybe some other stuff... he cleared a good portion of what other markets would call the "order book" and that is the primary cause of the market prices going up for last night.
@aggroed went to town buying 6 x 5steem cards
@kobold-djawa looks like he bought a gold legendary

There were still plenty of other of the common names in there: @mattclarke @lightningdragon @jimbobbill @clove71

RECENT TRENDS OF THE MARKET

As i already stated most of the price difference you'll see on the data poitns is from COMMONS and EPICS
Which has less impact on SM59 (which is simply one of each card)... you'll see the impact more on the SM59max and the MPR

$200 packs?? (Aka MPR/MPR-H)

What this data seems to show that if you're a willing to put a lot in and statistically guarantee a Gold Legend you're almost to the break even on buying and selling cards as stated in the MPR-H. However always keep in mind the data we use is what cards are listed at not what they are selling at. (We only use what they sold at prices for gold legendaries since their really isn't many listings to give anything close to accurate there)
I think a lot of people gamble against the statistics hoping for "lucky packs" that have more gold or beat the statistics... i can understand the appeal of the gamble.

DON'T READ INTO IT TOO MUCH

HOWEVER... the volume and the number of cards available on the market are so low that I wouldn't really read too much into it... I think we'll just see big volotility for a while until more people are playing and more people are buying and selling.

Also my reporting data is at irregular intervals so keep that in mind. It's basically when I have time to do a post.

MORE DATA?

721.png

MY TAKE ON THE DATA

I analyse the data just like you... and i personally think you should look at the main buyers and see if it was a one time thing. What i tend to do is go to https://staging.steempeak.com/@steemmonsters/transfers
and check incoming and then filter by "sm_" which limits it to transactions on the "Monster Market" ... then do the same thing over on @blervin wallet.
search monster transactions.png

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It's great! Getting closer to battling and a lot of people are leveling up! It's an exciting time, great info. here!

Hi @monsterworld, I'm @checky ! While checking the mentions made in this post I found out that @jimbobill doesn't exist on Steem. Maybe you made a typo ?

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Great analysis. The market is so small right now that you can easily fulfill your own prophecy.
Got a hunch the price is going up? Buying spree = prices go up.

Yep pretty much. hahaha

I mean if some random person wants to buy all of one particular common card for some strange reason he could really boost the value of his holdings as that price shoots up ;) haha

Leasing those cards out at a premium to an underfed market indefinitely?
What kind of handsome genius would think to do that?

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