U.S. Federal Government Deficit...last week

The U.S. Federal Government Deficit has risen to $578 billion last week. That is $114 billion over the same time last year. This is slightly narrower than the previous week’s year-over-year differential ($4 billion less), however, the important thing is that the trend of the deficit is rising and it is at the highest level so far for this fiscal year.

The fiscal picture in the U.S. is looking very destructive. Last week total U.S. Federal Government spending was $3.9 trillion with about six weeks left in the fiscal year. That means another $550 billion to $600 billion of spending to go. This will bring us very close to the single year spending record of $4.58 trillion that was hit in 2009 which “yielded” the U.S. a 4.0% GDP growth rate. Obviously that is not going to be repeated this time around.



Federal Government spending is currently running $119 billion above last year and got as high as $132 billion the middle of the last week, but then it slipped back a tiny bit. The growth rate of spending is 3.17% year-over-year which, is about 14% above its 50-day moving average. Total employment and withholding tax deposits are now at $1.98 trillion. That’s $66.1 billion above the same time last year. The growth rate in these tax deposits is 3.46% which, is about 5% above its 50-day moving average.




Total Federal Tax Deposits are now at a new nominal high of $2.35 trillion. That is $40.8 billion above last year, which is a year-over-year high. The growth rate in total tax deposits is 1.8%;, the highest in three months and very near the fastest growth rate all year. Some positive news is that the growth in employment and withholding tax deposits has been losing momentum just slightly, but they are still up year-over-year and sitting at record nominal highs. But growth in tax deposits is stalling at these high levels.