Crude Oil Analysis Report 5-18-18...Look For Oil To Continue To Rise...Target $82 (Update)

in #money7 years ago

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3 weeks ago, I made a post about Crude Oil,

Crude Oil Analysis Report 4-23-18...Look For Oil To Continue To Rise...Target $82

I mentioned in the late-stages of the economic cycle, energy and stocks of material companies do well because economic demand is still high and inflationary pressures support prices for hard assets like oil and commodities.

I recommended, for those who have IRAs, when price hits $11 on the ETF USO, buy to go long with a price target at $20.

Since that time crude oil hit a 3 1/2 year high and the following companies have hit new highs as well:

ConocoPhillips [$70.66 currently] - new high since April 2015

Marathon Oil [$21.65 currently] - new high since July 2015

Anadarko [$71.14 currently] - new high since Feb 2017

Hess [$65.17 currently] - new high since Jan 2017

So last week, I was able to get into USO when Trump withdrew from the Iran Nuclear Deal and reinstated sanctions and bought Leap Call Options in my IRA.

My targets are $16 and $20. I will buy more Leap Call Options once price breaches the $16 level and turn this trade into a calendar spread trade.

NOTE: A Long Calendar Spread is a low-risk, directionally neutral strategy that profits from the passage of time and/or an increase in implied volatility. A calendar is comprised of a short option (call or put) in a near-term expiration cycle, and a long option (call or put) in a longer-term expiration cycle. Both options are of the same type and use the same strike price.

  • Sell near-term Put/Call
  • Buy longer-term Put/Call

My target on crude oil remains $82.

This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor, this isn't financial advise. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

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Great trades! Will be interesting to see how this also impacts the Nat Gas market as the supply available is huge and increases in Oil can incentivize a switch to Nat Gas which could also increase valuations there as well.

Thanks NAI. I find Nat Gas tricky and range bound. However, it's worth revisiting. I know there is an ETF called UNG, but no premium I believe on the options.

excellent post..right with you!!

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