Do We Have Fake Economic News? Bring on the BlockChain!
Take a look at the series of numbers reported lately for the PMI (Purchasing Managers Index). False numbers were reported in May only to be adjusted upwards by over 3 points. Instead of falling they reached a 2 1/2 year high reported Market Watch - Jeffery Bartash.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/economy-shifts-to-merely-fast-from-furious-in-chicago-area-pmi-finds-2017-05-31
Recently we had a surprise (dare I say blowout) "Moving the Market" number for June Chicago PMI: Actual 65.7, Briefing.com consensus 57.8, Prior 59.4 reports Briefing.com. Anything above 50 indicates improving conditions reported Bartash correcting the incorrect May report.
https://www.briefing.com/investor/popuppages/articlepopup.aspx?articleId=BI20170630091745
Purchasing is a strong indicator of a recovery or expected recovery. But, if the purchasing simply goes into inventory we have a fake rally. If inventories struggle to keep up with purchasing we may get more fake or skewed numbers despite having real growth.
Beware of the next round of Fake News opportunities. If inventories increase in proportion to increased sales we will have numbers that fake news can continue to manipulate. Consider this scenario - Inventories increase and so do sales so inventories are increased again in order to keep up. Reporting the increased inventories without reporting the increased sales could give the appearance of a pull back when in fact the opposite would be clearly underway.
We are all becoming aware of the highly charged political nature of most if not all reporting agencies. This means the door is wide open for a revolution in news including Economic Reports. Imagine if a go-getter founded a reporting agency that just stuck to the facts! Will it come from the Block-Chain? Will it come from someone on the sidelines who has the funds and is just sick and tired of fake news cycles?
One thing is certain - It will come. Innovation always rushes into the gap created by a lack of quality.
john adams
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