RE: Are you smarter than Isaac Newton? If not, do not think you can escape bubbles…
Sure, raw intelligence is not the only predictor of success as an investor. However, most successful investors are highly intelligent, e.g. Soros.
I just find it fascinating that Newton was sucked into the bubble again. Back in 1700s the stock market was very immature and difficult to analyse (hence all the bubbles), somewhat like cryptocurrencies today. So, perhaps Newton would have been a stock investors a la Soros in today's informed market place.
Newton vs. LeBron and basketball: I think you comparing apples to pears here. Not relevant for your argument. A bubble has nothing to do with the usefulness of the underlying asset. Quite contrary, most bubbles are in very useful 'securities'. I do not know what blockchains are in the world of finance (equity, option?). They are so revolutionary and disruptive, and thus highly prone to bubbles. I do not think (in fact I know) that anyone can accurately predict the intrinsic value of Bitcoin, and I do not know if we are in a bubble, because bubbles are only identified retrospectively. There are very good arguments for why Bitcoin should be worth much less, and there are very good arguments for why Bitcoin should be worth 1 million dollars. I have no problem seeing BTC a lot higher than today's price, but I do not count on it. I have BTC, but I do not live in a tent and moved all my fiat into BTC. I try to not be so emotional invested into any investment. One argument why BTC could go a lot higher is that is looks very antifragile and gains from disorder. And it does not seem correlated with any other asset class (for obvious reasons). Thus, from a portfolio perspective, some BTC could decrease risk overall. When the super rich understand this, then BTC could skyrocket. Only time will tell.
Bubbles are generated when there is an overdemand of a product, therefore, the BTC is going to be very volatile and will constantly have microbubbles as long as it continues to have such a low value. Since many people with low and medium capital can speculate with their value to get a couple of slices.
The imminent danger to the BTC is the States and a negative reaction from them.
But far from that I believe that the BTC has indeed a value and a utility that justifies its demand, especially in the countries of the third world and / or with authoritarian government (case China), so that in the long run it will end up rising in value .
Of course this is all my opinion, and of course, I may be wrong, but that's my way of looking at things.