Everyone is Talking about higher rates because of the FED
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Rates! It is the talk of the town right now after Jackson Hole, the inflation data, Powell and Trump. The FED has said that is on track for 2 more hikes this year (which i don't believe) and recently in the minutes said they are on track for hiking in September. While the TV talking heads would like to get you to believe Powell and teh rate hikes, I am here to show you why they are not going to be raising rates again next meeting.
The bond market is known as the smart money and I believe you are going to see it pay off again. The smart money is moving into BONDS here and yields are falling. Check out TLT below, this is very clear defined held of support on a weekly time frame 4 separate occasions. Now we are testing the down trend line and I would say there is an 80% chance we break up.
The reason for this is the chart below. Below is the ten year yield. I was bullish rates in July of 2016 and called for a Rate spike and said Bonds may have top for years to come (at 142). Now bonds have held the line multiple times. Everyone is bullish rates calling for 3.10-4+ (at 3.06 I called for under 2.80) and the boat has swung the other way. I am seeing a clear breakdown here going forward, just when everyone gets all bullish rates, they start dropping again.
I am BEARISH - RATES, DOLLAR
I am BULLISH - EEM, BTC
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by heyimsnuffles
I agree with you. I dont think they will raise interest rates. Most places depend a lot on goods from China and if the uncertainty of the trade war looming, it puts the economy in a uncertain position. Not exactly where the FED wants us to be raising rates.
I'd say there's likely a 45% chance they will raise rates. It still could happen. But it's certainly not as likely as before. Plus we aren't seeing as many building permits being purchased and the average credit rating for loans is slowly decreasing. Those are typically bearish signs on leading indicators.
Totally agree with you. :)
It's all in the charts...the price and charts usually pave the wave!! thanks for responding!
Nice post and I agree with your analysis.
Thanks for stopping by! Followed and i am trying to be more active on TIMM!