Helikopterben's top 10 predictions for 2017steemCreated with Sketch.

in #money7 years ago (edited)
  1. A major breakthrough in consensus protocols will be achieved and a POC for this technology will be released. Most likely this will come from the ethereum team as significant research has gone into this field of study. It won’t be clear at first, but over time and, with enough testing, this system will be deemed superior to POW, DPOS, and any other competing protocols. Significant trolling will accompany the release of this system. This breakthrough could possibly come from another source.

  2. A large faction from the traditional financial system (think goldman-sachs, JP Morgan, Bank of America, ect.) will defect, form their own company with ample funding, and begin building an ethereum-based derivatives network - futures contracts, options contracts, contract-for-difference, ect. This network will be built on top of the ethereum public chain and will also work with rootstock. This action will futher reduce the legitimacy of private chains. However, it will also become clear that the base layer of ethereum needs years more work to get to the point where these two networks can be used reliably. POS and sharding will be difficult to get right on many different levels, but will be done eventually, just not in 2017.

  3. bitcoin - Segwit will not be activated in its current form. The 95% threshold needed to achieve activation will not be reached. Currently, miner activation levels have stagnated around the 25% level and segwit enable nodes have yet to reach 50%. However, an agreement will be negotiated that accommodates a block-size increase in conjunction with segwit and a lower threshold for activation, which will be done as a hard fork. This hard fork will not take place in 2017.

  4. Bitcoin will reach a price of $6,000 and then crash spectacularly. Tx rates will increase dramatically during this run-up and, as a result, the rise will be exacerbated as users won’t be able to send coins to exchanges to sell. This will highlight the main problem with bitcoin – onchain scaling – and miners will finally be motivated to do something about it: see prediction #1.

  5. ETH will reach a price of $100 and remain somewhat stable near that price.

  6. Steem will reach a market cap of $400 million again but won't surpass it. Fears of stakeholder centralization will be prevalent throughout the year.

  7. An unforeseen use case for Steem will emerge.

  8. A brief buying frenzy will occur in most altcoins. Only the strong will survive. combined altcoin market cap will hit $10 billion.

  9. The Euro will experience further decline vs the US dollar. Interest rates will rise in US dollars (specifically the 10 yr treasury note), causing significant problems in the credit markets, and at least one fiat currency will hyperinflate.

  10. The US stock market (S&P 500) will decline this year, which will begin a multi-year downturn and possibly a multi-decade drop in stock prices. A realization will become prevalent that traditional vehicles for investment may be obsolete and these vehicles could potentially be replaced by consensus-driven networks.

Bonus: At least one more member of the European Union will leave.

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@helikopterben - Excellent post, but there is still a glitch in the system when you use 5 tags... only the first one shows your post.

This post can only be seen in #money right now... if you drop a tag, it should show in three more, like #steem #bitcoin and #ethereum.... for example.

Enjoyed these predictions. The 10 yr treasury will definitely continue to rise in my opinion and it will be interesting how it impacts the credit markets and particularly the real estate market in the U.S.

I wouldnt be surprised to see 4%, which is really just a reversion to the mean.

"ETH will reach a price of $100 and remain somewhat stable near that price."

We are there now.

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