Hey Steemit, does anyone really have the ability to make economic predictions? [dTube]
I've studied economics at the undergraduate and graduate levels and studied these issues for a long time now, and I increasingly believe that the concept of economic predictions is mostly bogus. I think the most intelligent path forward is for people to make plans that account for the unpredictability of our economy and not to spend time finding the forecaster that is "always right" or mostly right.
Thoughts?
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Have you read Antifragile? Also, Black Swan by the same guy.
I haven't, although I have the 2nd edition of Black Swan which includes an extra section on fragility. Very interesting stuff.
I always feel really bad recommending Antifragile, because it's got a lot of interesting stuff in it, but it's sooooo badly edited that it's frustrating when all the cool ideas are scattered around randomly and not attached to things. Like, you're reading and thinking, dude I could have organized this stuff for you!
While I do think that there are so many things going on that effect the economy to consistently and accurately predict what will happen in the future, I also think that you can make reasonable predictions within a set time that will come to pass. This isn't all the time though and I'd say that it's only possible in certain instances and up to a certain extent.
I 100% agree with you with you when you say to make plans for the unpredictability of our economy. The one thing you can count on is the fact the situations will pop up in the economy and if you aren't prepared for it then it could possible knock you off your feet for good.
Much like you I studied economics and geo-political policy. I believe the field to be a kind of fusion of political theory and math, where the underlying statistical data is interpreted using theory heavily tainted by a political brush. It is therefore extremely difficult for anyone to make predictions with a "definite" certainty because much of the variables are coming linked to political outcomes. In my opinion, the best economists are the ones that take in the most data and are able to make predictions based on probability, but even then there is no certainty that the highest probable outcome will always come to fruition.
Classical economics is a pseudo-science. But that's the orthodoxy, so that's what economists use in their models. This is why they so often come out wrong. Keynesians aren't much better at prediction, but they can be relied upon for post mortems.
Behavioral economics, however, is showing tremendous promise as a prediction method, and will eventually supplant classical economics and Keynesian economics in the area of forecasting. It's just a matter of keeping tracks of the Ws and Ls.
I tend to agree. Ultimately we live in an economy of an infinite number of potential variables all changing at various rates. Economic models can only reduce the complexity of our economic systems to a certain degree. I would also suggest that our models for measuring economic productivity are inherently flawed. Example: Say I have a child and you have a child. One day both our children are sick and we have to stay home to take care of them. That would be considered a loss of productivity. HOWEVER if I pay you to take care of my child and you pay me to take care of your child, these "economic transactions" are seen as increasing "economic productivity" even though it's essentially a wash. With that being said, like any good use of science the field of economics should always be questioned and hopefully evolve over time....
I can understand,good one
Actually im really bad at economics im chemical engineer we use analysis but i have no clue in the field
wow... you sharing an uncommon post about our life i learn something from your post...
Yeah i think so.. People waste time in predictions and gain nothing in the end..
There is no laboratory any where for economic forecasting. It is always a subject of mere conjectures.