Moonsteem Review

There have been released a lot of gaming and gambling apps lately on the Steem Blockchain after the success of Steemmonsters. I have tested most of them out for free without making any investment as nearly all of the business models are very close to being a Ponzi. Pretty much the moment new players stop coming in it all collapses and everyone loses their "investment" and fails to turn break even. Moonsteem seems to be different and I really like the setup of this game as a Sports Bettor.

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The basics of the game can be confusing at first, but are really easy to understand. Basically, there are odds that always go up and they stop at a random time based on the probabilities. You can place a bet and can cash out at any given time until the odds mooned. If you are too late you lose your money. Based on the probabilities 90.9% of the times it will moon at 1.10 odds and 20% of the times it will go to 5.00. There is a fair house edge with 1 out of 100 games stopping at 0.

If anything, as a Sports Bettor it is really interesting to get a better sense on how often these bigger odds actually hit. I witnessed the odds going over x1000 twice already and them going above 100 is also no exception.

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One of the more interesting concepts that is quite easy to fall into even as an experienced Sports Bettor is the Gamblers Fallacy. (The feeling that previous results have an influence on future results). This game fully taps into this and if anything can be a fun and cheap way to overcome the concepts of both chasing and tilting becoming a better Sports Bettor in the process. I spend many hours myself trying to beat roulette games when I was young using a martingale system and the idea that it could be beaten if I just waited and only started playing black with increased stakes after it had been 4x red already which extended my reach.

By Playing the Game
Purely looking at the Expected Value (EV) without looking at results it's impossible to beat this Moonsteem since each individual game is -EV. However, it does allow to cheat time by using chase systems making it highly likely to make profit in the short term if you manage to avoid getting unlucky.

martingale
a martingale system doubles the bet each time on ~50% probability making you win the base amount each time you hit a winner. In sports betting terms this means you are simply betting 1.001 or lower odds. The chance of losing is extremely small, but when it happens you lose a lot compared to what you are able to win each cycle. Moonsteem also allows to set rules and let it run martingale automatically.

Pure technically this system works and casinos counter it by having minimum and maximum limits on their tables. Moonsteem is this regard is different since the minimum and maximum bets are so wide between 1 and 2146400 currently. This makes it technically possible to run a martingale system where you can survive 22x going below 2.00. The odds on that happening are insanely low. Since 1 Steem represents 1 million Steemies which is the native currency of the game it's not going to make anyone rich to run a martingale system that goes 22x deep.

Playing the game itself also gives you a share of the profit in the form of rakeback.

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By Investing
This is the interesting part and pretty much allows anyone to turn the odds in their favor. Moonsteem is a fair gambling game meaning anyone can play have fun doing so and potentially have a bit on luck and win some money. The house has a small edge and is almost sure to make a profit over time.

Moonsteem seems to have a very realistic bankroll management approach. This means they need deep pockets in order to overcome the short term variance and never get in danger of going broke and guarantee continuity. They allow people to invest Steem so they can increase the maximum betting limits in return for a share of the overall profit.

Each investment comes with a 0.5% dilution fee that goes to previous investors. While this may look like a ponzi, it is mostly there to give an incentive to keep the investment going which helps to ensure the limits. This 0.5% dilution fee is very easy to overcome. I invested 50 Steem myself early on and added 50 more once the dilution fee was fully covered. So far investing in this app has made a very good return for me without the investment itself being at risk. Right now I'm at a 3.108 STEEM Profit (this goes up and down based on how much the players win or lose)

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Everyone with a Steemit account can login trough Steemconnect over at Moonsteem.com (Affiliate link | Normal Link ). Giving upvotes to posts on the @moonsteem account will add some steemies to your account to test out the game (depending on the size of your upvote). It's a fun way to test out the game without having to pay anything for it, try out some strategies and make up your own mind about this project.

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Most Games & Gambling apps on Steem in my view are a ticking time bomb where it feels like a matter of time before they completely dry up. Moonsteem seems different in that regard and is just an overall fun experience and I notice myself being drawn to it. It would be nice to see it evolve to something more than what it is right now and I have a couple of ideas to share of things that can be done to make it into a longer-term success.

• Tournaments
  This format is perfectly suitable to organize some kind of tournaments. A fixed amount of time and everyone starts off with the same starting budget. The ones that end up winning the most get a share of a pre-determined prize pool. (it can be played with 'play money' changing an amount to enter that includes a small fee.)

• Upvotes on Steemit
  Delegating to moonsteem right now is part of what increases your P&L % yet nothing is done with that voting power. It would be nice to see upvotes being part of the rewards for players somehow work as an extra incentive to play the game. It can also be done with doing daily achievements. Play x amount to get an upvote from @moonsteem that day.

• Odds / Evens betting options
  This extra option to bet on even or uneven numbers could easily be implemented and also works perfectly with the martingale system.

• Sounds / Images
  Right now the entire game is very rationally oriented and does not really tap into the human reward center to the fullest. Adding sounds and images as a way to gamify/ memeify the game as an option that can be turned on or off would be fun. Right now there is only an image of the nyancat when the moon hit 1000+. Having some kind of option to add custom sounds and gifs being able to create a video to share could be a fun and creative way to give the game more exposure on the internet.

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These are just some ideas and I would love to see this game grow over time setting a good example for other projects how it can be done properly.

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Let me know in the comments what you think of moonsteem and what your strategy / experience is with the game...