The Case for the Continued Stock Bull Market

We have been in stock bull market since the financial crisis in 08 and the after effects in 09. Basically every year after that stocks have performed higher than usual and many believe that this bull market will soon be coming to an end. I personally think we will see some correction in the next few years, but there are many out there who think that not only will the bull market continue, but it might continue to a point where prices could go double or even triple as much as they are now.

The argument for the continued bull market is mostly using historical data to see what has happened in the past on a much larger scale. If we look back the exponential growth in the stock market is nothing compared to what we see today, in fact our 9 year bull market looks pitiful compared to the bull markets of the past. There are many complex reasons for this, but if history truly does repeat itself we really havent had a fantastic level of growth in the last 20 years, mostly due to the dotcom burst and then the financial crisis only 8 years later.

Many are saying that on a larger scale there still needs to be compensation for those lost years of investment, which I personally will say that the past doesnt accurately reflect the future in many cases and the world international market isnt the same as it was in the 20s. In my opinion we should look less at the historical reasons and more at the other reasons they usually give which I might buy a bit more. One of these reasons is with the tanking bond market which has a ton more money than equities, people will be moving money over so they dont lose out, which I could potentially see.

In addition there are governments who hold fixed income bonds that are thinking about just buying equities instead, which I am skeptic that would really happen. I think theres a better chance that pension funds and other big players in the fixed income market will move money into securities. Governments try to stay out of owning equities, with some exceptions like state owned companies, which really only occur in countries more on the socialist spectrum. The final reason which I actually do buy on a long term scale but maybe not on a short term one, is that companies are becoming more profitable because of less staff and are able to keep costs down. This is an interesting idea I want to explore further in the future.

If there was a big move from fixed income over to securities we would definitely see prices soar and continue the bull market, but I think many companies are already overvalued. I dont know what is going to happen I just wanted to talk about the case that some are making for the future. I think in the long run it doesnt matter much, but we are definitely in a weird place at the moment when it comes to the stock and bond markets. If we were to see the bull market continue im sure many would be very happy but it probably wont be sustainable for the long term.

-Calaber24p