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RE: STEEM to SBD Historical Information/Comparison
If you look at the price of Steem to SBD over the course of the existence of the two currencies, you'll find that the price has fluctuated wildly. Out of the 19 months that SBD has been in existence, it has the price compared to Steem has been $1 or higher for 9 of those months. I think it is a distinct possibility that the price of SBD could go back to $1 for a period of time. It's ironic because if you read the whitepaper, the price of SBD is supposed to be pegged to $1 of Steem. It's curious that they removed the ability to convert SBD to Steem from Steemit.
I don't exactly know how it works, but the fact that no additional SBD were "printed" to dilute the price from $14 in November back to $1 makes me wonder that there could be another way to bring the price back to $1. The graphs you have there somehow shows a sideways movement with a slight downtrend against USD. I understand that for STEEM which is bound to inflate at 100% per year, but for SBD I somehow expect it to move up because of the scarcity in supply. I may be missing something though...
You're analysis looks reasonable. Steem/SBD does not, however, exist in a vacuum. The activity of the cryptocurrency market as a whole and well as the socioeconomic circumstances of the investors also add volatility. As there is a smaller supply of SBD, I would expect it to act as a leading indicator for Steem (as the reduced supply make it easier to change the price). I haven't proved it out, but I would expect that a sharp drop in the price to result in a price closer to $1 whereas a sharp increase in price would move the price lower than $1.
I am curious about how STEEM will reach $20 or more if SBD will be pegged at $1 without an increase in total supply. Or maybe I should think out of the concept that STEEM is backed by SBD and SBD is backed by USD. Or maybe I should start reading the whitepaper now to get some answers haha
Anyway, thanks for the insights! I'm definitely learning a lot even just from conversations like this.
P.S. Thanks for the upvotes too. :)