The relationship between mining to Bitcoin price

The message I am trying to deliver today is very simple. However, in order to understand my message there are few things to set in mind before.

Here are some facts about the blockchain behind Bitcoin.

1. The rate of block creation is adjusted every 2016 blocks
2. The number of bitcoins generated per block is decreasing by 50% every 210,000 blocks. [https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Controlled_supply]
   Accordingly, it is well known that the mining reward is decreased by 50% every four years.

Every four years means much to data scientists. These three words give a quantitative range that can be used to look for patterns. My findings are as follows:

The genesis block was created in 2009. Four years later, in the year 2013 the following chart was drawn.

[https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/]

It looks very similar to the chart of the recent year which is also four years after 2013:

[https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/]

If my assumption is correct, every four years there was a bonus event for miners where they could get a cash reward for their hard work for four years. It happened in the year 2013 and it happened again in 2017.

Nowdays, there are a lot of saying that mining is not profitable anymore. I totally disagree with this since I am certain that we will face another event in the next years. So now it’s just not the right timing for cashing, it’s time to mine!

The exact timing for the next event cannot be forecasted since it all depends on the mining capability. The four year period is based solely on the current mining capability. As new mining technologies are developed, the period might become shorter or the technology could hit a wall and it could take much longer.

Based on my findings, and assuming they are somewhat close to correct, the following conclusions can be suggested:

1. Prepare for the next opportunity to gain huge profit: In January 2015, the Bitcoin price decreased by 80% from its ATH in November 2013. Comparing these numbers to our current situation, the Bitcoin price may reach near $3,940 in the near future which is the 80% decrease point from the current ATH of $19,700.
2. Find the Amazon of Nasdaq from ICOs: Many ICOs were raised and just few of them have shown actual performance. I believe most of the well funded ICOs are doing their best to fulfill their liabilities as suggested in their roadmap. Follow their channels and live close to crypto news. We are just in the beginning.
3. Monitor mining companies to check if my assumption is correct. The following image shows the biggest mining pools.

[https://www.buybitcoinworldwide.com/mining/pools/]