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RE: Ethereum mining profitability
The one extremely important factor that you and all people with this argument forget to mention is that the price/value of ether has gone up at a faster rate than the difficulty... Simply put, making less ether over time, but each ether is worth more! Currently, 2800 worth of hashpower will break even in only 6 months and anything after that is profit! Keep in mind, ether is in a downtrend right now, when it explodes again, breakeven will likely drop to 4-5 months. Btw, Genesis doesn't charge you for electricity, so there's big savings to consider there too. Thanks!
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As I explained in the post - it is only "set to break even" at current difficulty. Unfortunately, difficulty keeps increasing and whatever deal or hardware you buy you usually have a pretty short window of time to get your money back. With the "pay to mine deals" they know that already - if the hardware was guaranteed to make a proift they would just operate it themselves.
Look at it this way - if the price of ETH is going up and you're relying on that to make a $ profit then just buy ETH - you're guaranteed to make a profit with zero overhead for buying hardware. If you are given the hardware or can buy it cheaply (I detail the numbers above) then you can still make a profit, I discussed that scenario above. But so far I haven't come across a mining contract that wasn't completely rigged to be less profitable than buying ETH in the first place.