This time, the United States was stumped by the Houthi armed forces

The Houthis in Yemen refuse to go away. Despite the efforts of the U.S. Navy and its allies, the Houthis have successfully blocked one of the world's most strategic waterways, the Red Sea, for nearly two years. Most shipping vessels are forced to take the longer, more circuitous route around the Cape of Good Hope in Africa, which is more expensive to transport. Washington has failed to maintain freedom of navigation in one of the world's key maritime choke points.

On April 8, the website of the U.S. bimonthly magazine "National Interest" published an article titled "How the Houthis Outsmarted Washington" by Ramon Marquez. The article said that the technological revolution in naval warfare brought about by anti-ship missile systems and drones has enabled the Houthis to cut off the strategic Bab el-Mandeb Strait in the Red Sea. This ongoing confrontation poses a serious threat to the United States, a global maritime power.

The first lesson the United States has learned is obviously technology. Drones and land-based missile systems can now destroy surface warships hundreds or even thousands of kilometers away. The Houthis' attack on the Red Sea highlights the challenges facing the U.S. Navy. The U.S. Navy is looking for new ways to deal with drones and anti-ship missiles. Its traditional aircraft carriers and other warships, equipped with expensive and complex manned aircraft and missile systems, have proven to be less suitable for this new era of warfare. It may take years for the U.S. Navy and Congress to develop and perfect countermeasures against those weapons.

The second lesson is that the U.S. Navy is stretched thin. The United States has been forced to deploy two aircraft carrier battle groups in the Red Sea region to deal with Houthi attacks on warships and merchant ships. Despite these powerful forces, the Red Sea is still effectively blocked. At the same time, competitive challenges in other parts of the world also require the U.S. Navy to maintain a high level of attention.

It is very doubtful whether the U.S. Navy is large enough. The old U.S. shipyards do not have the production capacity. Nevertheless, the core mission of the Pacific Fleet is to protect the United States' allies, the Philippines, Japan and South Korea. In addition, the U.S. Navy must also be prepared for Iran.

In August 2024, the Houthis attacked the Greek "Sounion" tanker in the Red Sea. (AP file photo)

To deal with all these diverse challenges, the United States has to keep at least one aircraft carrier battle group firmly in the Red Sea region - playing an expensive and dangerous game of whack-a-mole with the Houthi missile and drone attacks - a costly and unsustainable solution in the long run.

The Trump administration may have realized this and recently escalated its strikes against the Houthis, devoting more air power resources (including B2 bombers) to more offensive operations in an effort to defeat the Houthis once and for all. Whether air power alone can achieve a decisive victory remains to be seen. Preliminary combat results show that this deployment is not enough. Although the United States has reportedly consumed more than $1 billion in aviation ammunition in just three weeks, the Houthi attacks in the Red Sea have not stopped. If air power cannot permanently suppress the Houthis, Washington will face a difficult decision.

One option is to simply withdraw from the Red Sea and let European allies continue to carry out military strikes against the Houthis. After all, Western Europe is more economically dependent on the Red Sea shipping line than the United States, and the United States' European allies have more than 1,000 warships at their disposal. Unlike the military situation on the ground in Europe, European navies should be able to handle the Red Sea mission even if the U.S. Navy withdraws. No doubt this is what U.S. Vice President Cyril Vance had in mind when he recently criticized the Europeans for “freeloading” on the Red Sea operation.

However, if the United States withdraws from the Red Sea battle, it may send the wrong message, especially after the United States hastily withdrawn its troops from Afghanistan. It will be interpreted as another sign of U.S. strategic decline. Instead, the Trump administration’s decision to escalate the strikes against the Houthis shows that the United States remains committed to maintaining freedom of navigation in distant regions, even when U.S. economic interests are less affected than those of its allies.

Although the Houthis have not yet hit U.S. warships or manned aircraft, they have been launching continuous attacks. If air power alone cannot eliminate the threat, the United States may have to consider further escalation, including possible naval blockades and ground raids. The Houthis have forced the United States into a strategic dilemma, and Washington’s prestige can no longer withstand a protracted stalemate. This is a conflict that the United States must resolve or pay a strategic price. There may well come a day when Washington will have no choice but to escalate further or be forced to face another defeat similar to that in Afghanistan — this time at the hands of the Houthis.