Why Do you think China and India will be the next superpower ? Why not Russia , Brazil , Germany or England ?
Some important aspects of a superpower : -
1.Economical prowess - Now in the next 10 to 15 years the economic prowess of India and China will be much bigger than that of Russia, Brazil, Germany or UK.
A story from the Hindustan TImes
India is well poised to become the third-largest economy by 2030, surpassing four developed nations Japan, Germany, Britain and France, according to projections by a US government agency.
The estimate by the United States Department for Agriculture Economic Research Service (USDA), based on data collated by World Bank and IMF, assumes the Indian economy will expand annually at an average 7.4% to $6.84 trillion by 2030. This will make it bigger than that of the economies of Japan ($6.37 trillion) and Germany ($4.38 trillion).
What’s more, India’s annual economic output will be almost double that of Britain ($3.6 trillion) and France ($3.44 trillion) in the next 15 years.
According to a research by the UK based PriceWaterHouseCoopers, the top economies in 2030 is
Netherlands — $1.08 trillion
Colombia — $1.111 trillion
South Africa — $1.148 trillion
Vietnam — $1.303 trillion
Bangladesh — $1.324 trillion
Argentina — $1.342 trillion
Poland — $1.505 trillion
Malaysia — $1.506 trillion
Philippines — $1.615 trillion
Australia — $1.663 trillion
Thailand — $1.732 trillion
Nigeria — $1.794 trillion
Pakistan — $1.868 trillion
Egypt — $2.049 trillion
Canada — $2.141 trillion
Spain — $2.159 trillion
Iran — $2.354 trillion
Italy — $2.541 trillion
South Korea — $2.651 trillion
Saudi Arabia — $2.755 trillion
Turkey — $2.996 trillion
France — $3.377 trillion
United Kingdom — $3.638 trillion
Mexico — $3.661 trillion
Brazil — $4.439 trillion
Germany — $4.707 trillion
Russia — $4.736 trillion
Indonesia — $5.424 trillion
Japan — $5.606 trillion
India — $19.511 trillion
United States — $23.475 trillion
China — $38.008 trillion
So you can see that China at 1st position and India at 3rd position in 2030. Russia is at No.5, Germany at No.6, Brazil at No. 8 and UK at No. 10.
2.After economic prowess comes Human resource - Here India and China are miles ahead of the other 4 countries the OP have mentioned.
India’s population - 1.35 billion (2018)
China’s population - 1.38 billion (2018)
Germany’s population - 83 million (2018) - This is around 1/15th of India’s or China’s population
Russia’s population - 145 million (2018) - This is around 1/10th of India’s or China’s population
Brazil’s population - 210 million (2018) - This is around 1/7th of India’s or China’s population
UK’s population - 66 million (2018) - This is around 1/20th of India’s or China’s population
So India and China will easily defeat the other’s in Human Resource.
Huge Human Resource = Cheap Labour = Low Production/Manufacturing Cost
3.Age of population - Now age of population is a very important aspect. The age of the population in India and China is far lower than the rest four countries.
So you can see the average age of UK is 41, Russia is 39, Germany is 46, Brazil is 31, China is 36.7 and India is just 27.
India and Brazil are the most youngest among this six nations.
A young population always generally contributes higher GDP per capita.
4.Military prowess - India and China are much ahead of the rest three countries other than Russia in military power.
Germany’s army is a joke, it will never become a strong contender in military power.
In air force Russia is at 2nd spot behind the USA. Russia is followed by China and India at No. 3 and No. 4 respectively. Germany, UK and Brazil do not have any super powerful air force, British air force is only capable of hitting poor Muslim countries like Iraq, Syria and Libya.
China has 714 naval assets. Of the 714 naval assets its has, there is one aircraft carrier, 50 frigates, 29 destroyers, 39 corvettes, 73 submarines, 220 patrol craft, and 29 mine-warfare vessels.
Russia has 352 assets, including one aircraft carrier, nine frigates, 13 destroyers, 78 corvettes, 62 submarines, 41 patrol craft, and 47 mine-warfare vessels.
India currently has 295 naval assets, including an aircraft carrier, 14 frigates, 11 destroyers, 22 corvettes, 16 submarines, 139 patrol aircraft, and four mine-warfare vessels.
You can see India and China are far ahead of the UK, Germany and Brazil in this department. However we see that Russia is still ahead of both India and China is this department.
5.Future Scope of urbanization - Now India and China is very large and there is lot of space for urbanization in India and China. On the other hand UK and Germany are very small countries in terms of area.
Russia (biggest in the world) and Brazil (5th biggest) are very big, but there is a twist in the story. 90 % of Russia is uninhabitable due to extreme cold weather. So only around 10 to 20 % of Russia is habitable by human beings. Even in case of Brazil 40 to 45 % of the land is not habitable due to Amazon forest.
Russia has even more imbalance in population distribution compared to Brazil. Almost everything is concentrated in Moscow and St. Petersburg.
We can clearly see that most of Brazil is not habitable. We know India except the North East states are almost equally habitable. The difference in population density in the various regions of India is much less compared to Brazil and Russia.
So there is more scope of urbanization in India and China.
- Global Market Penetration - No country is close to China in terms of global market penetration. China has already set sights on Africa, a continent with lots of unused resources. There is a word that the African continent is becoming a colony of the Chinese. This is 100 % percent true. There is no country even competing in Africa against China except Turkey to some extent. Turkey under Erdogan has her own Neo-Ottoman ambitions and they are trying to bring the Muslim countries of North Africa under their control. Meanwhile North Africa is 95 % Muslim, Central Africa is mixed while Southern parts of Africa are overwhelmingly Christian.
Now back in Asia, China is slowly transforming Buddhist Sri Lanka, Muslim Pakistan and Hindu Nepal to its proxy states.
In India also, whether it is an LED light for room decoration during Diwali and Christmas or in marriage and birthday parties, everything is Chinese.
In India, Android smartphones are the hottest selling commodity. Even here Xiaomi has pipped Samsung to become the number 1 smartphone brand.
In India, Xiaomi is at Number 1, Samsung at No. 2, Oppo at No.3, Vivo at No. 4, Lenovo/Moto at No. 5 and Huawei/Honor at No. 6. So 5 of the top 6 manufacturers are Chinese. After taking over 70 % of India’s Android smartphone market, Xiaomi and Huawei are ready to storm Europe.
Back in the West, Chinese are buying thousands of American, British and European firms every year.
After conquering the market of Asia, Africa and Europe, China will shift its attention towards South and Central America (popularly known as Latin America).
I appreciate the Chinese way of colonization, its is called economic colonization. It is far better than Anglo-Franco-American way of colonization by brute force/military power. It is far better than Wahhabi Saudi Arabia colonizing Sunni Muslim countries like Egypt, Pakistan and Malaysia by providing their leaders lots of money. It is much better than Spain and Portugal bringing Christianity based communal colonization in South and Central America (known as Latin America popularly). I wish India also follows Chinese type of economic colonization in future, not Anglo-American style of brute-force colonization (for example Libya, Iraq and Afghanistan in recent times). There is not much harm in economic colonization. It is not an evil concept.
- Trade and Commerce and Balance of Trade -
A country which aspires to be a superpower must be a master in trade and commerce. Now an important concept is balance of trade. A country will be successful economically in the long run only when its total export exceeds its total import at least by 10%.
China is possibly the country who is clearly following the ‘Balance of trade’ concept.
I am not able to provide the import and export data for the same year. Please note I have only the export data for 2017 and import data for 2016. However I think there should not be a huge difference due to that.
Please observe that from the above figure we can say that China spends almost INR Rs 100 for imports while it earns Rs 150 from exports.
The below image shows the major trading partner of all European countries.
As expected there is a complete dominance of Germany in Europe. However it should be noted that the main trading partner of Russia is China. There are some doubts in this. Wikipedia states that the largest trading partner of Russia is Germany.
China’s dominance can be greatly seen in Africa. Most African country has China as its biggest trading partner.
China is also the biggest trading partner of Brazil
Now we see trade and commerce of India.
It is well known that India’s largest trading partner is China, however the reverse is not true. China’s largest tading partner is the USA, not India.
Here we see the Chinese have set their foot on every parts of the world. Germany is basically an European power. Russia has it own influence in previous Soviet states. India must target continents like Africa if they want to become superpower in future. Africa is a continent full of unused resources and China is running a monopoly in that continent.
- Natural Resources - Some persons may wonder why I have kept natural resources so down in the list. This map illustrates my point of view.
As a country becomes more and more developed natural resources contributes less towards GDP.
The contribution of natural resources in the GDP of Congo is 74 % while in case of USA it is just 2 or 3 %.
Now among this six countries in the question Russia has greatest natural resources without any doubt.
I consider agricultural products like rice and wheat as natural resources. Now in agricultural resources China and India takes a big lead. China and India are 1st and 2nd biggest producer of rice and wheat.
India and China are the 1st and 3rd highest producer of millet.
China and Russia are the 1st and 2nd largest producer of potatoes.
Russia and India are the 2nd and 3rd largest producer of milk (US is 1st)
India is the largest producer of butter and some other dairy products.
China is the largest producer of lamb and mutton.
Brazil, India and China are the top 3 producers in sugarcane.
With the rise in popularity of coffee among Europeans, Brazil quickly became the world's largest producer in 1840 and has been ever since. In 2014, Brazil produced a dizzying 2.7 million metric tons of coffee, which was over 30% of the world's production.
Now coming to mineral and metal based resources. Here we see great dominance of China and Russia.
In iron-ore China is at No 1 and Brazil is at No. 2.
Russia is number 1 in Nickel reserves. Russia is No. 2 in diamond reserves.
China produces 65 % of the world’s tungsten.
China is the largest producer of tin, zinc and mercury.
China is the largest producer of bituminous coal, followed by India at No. 3 and Russia at No. 4.
Now coming to oil and natural gas, in these areas we hear the names of Saudi and Iran. But here also Russia is at a leading position. Much of Russia’s oil and natural gas are still unused while Saudi’s natural gas and oil are slowly getting over gradually.
Nearly 80% of the world's total proven natural gas reserves are located in ten countries. Russia tops the list, holding about a quarter of world's total gas reserves, followed by Iran and Qatar in the Middle East.
Overall Russia is country with most natural resources. Russia accounts for almost $75 trillion worth of natural resources.
- The English Language - Though some people may dispute this, but the English language will help India to counter China in the long run.
English may not be the most spoken language in the world, but it is the official language of 53 countries and spoken by around 400 million people across the globe. Being able to speak English is not just about being able to communicate with native English speakers, it is the most common second language in the world.
Here India is miles ahead of the other four countries except UK. India was and India is the biggest winner of globalization. It will probably be the biggest winner of globalization in future too along with Philippines. Big US and UK based firms seek their service from service based IT companies like TCS and Infosys in India. This is only possible due to the ever growing popularity of the English language. Most Indians do not know great English (at least in comparison to the Americans and Brits), but a large number of youths know a decent level of English using which he/she can communicate with a foreigner. India has now of the biggest IT services and BPO industry in the world. But slowly China and Philippines are posing huge threats to Indian monopoly in the field of outsourcing.
India, being a nation with significant English speaking population can borrow a lot of cultural things from other English speaking countries like USA, UK, Australia and Canada.
- Lot of people have requested me to include Education - Yes they are correct. Without proper education you cannot achieve anything. What is the use of great natural resource and human resource if the education system is poor.
Here we can see the other five countries in question are much ahead of India.
According to the 2011 census, literacy level is 93.91 percent in Kerala and 91.58 percent in Mizoram, among the most literate states in the country. The national literacy rate, according to the 2011 census, is 74.04 percent.
Wikipedia is however showing that India’s literacy rate is 72 %.
The literacy rate in India is 74 %, while it is 96.4 % in China, it is 91.7 % in Brazil, it is 99.7 % in Russia. Data for UK and Germany are not available on Wiki but if other websites are to be believed it is over 99 %.
Even in India’s literacy rate male literacy rate is 81 % while female literacy rate is just 63 %. In China male literacy rate is 98.2 % while female literacy rate is just 94.5 %. In Brazil, Russia, UK and Germany the literacy rate is almost same for men and women. A superpower should have over 90 % literacy rate and there should not be much different between the male and female literacy rates.
As per the latest 2011 Census, about 8.15% (68 millions) of Indians are graduates, with Union Territories of Chandigarh and Delhi topping the list with 24.65% and 22.56% of their population being graduates respectively.
In terms of education index Germany is at No. 5, UK is at No. 10, Russia is at No. 34, Brazil is at No. 87, China is at No. 108 and India is at No. 131.
So all other countries are much ahead of India in this aspect.
I will try to update the education point further in the next few days.
- Some people have mentioned about sports. Yes you need to be a big-brother in sports too if you really want to excel as a superpower in the 21st century world. India is mostly successful in cricket these days while Brazil main sporting successes come from football and beach volley.
Cricket and football does not make huge difference in the sporting achievement of a nation. The tournament that matters the most is Olympics. USA generally occupies the Number 1 position in most Olympics. This is in complete sync with their superpower status.
Now we will take a look how the six countries fare at Olympics
We always knew Russia used to play second fiddle (occupy No. 2 spot) to the US in the Olympics. But we saw keeping Beijing Olympics 2008 in mind, China leapfrogged Russia and have since maintained the lead over their Northern neighbours. Now the interesting thing is Britain has followed Chinese model in Olympics and the tiny island nation has leapfrogged China. It is a glorious achievement for UK (66 million population in 2016) to be placed at just No. 2 spot behind USA. Russia and Germany performs very well in Olympics compared to their population. Brazil is an underachiever in Olympics but still its achievement is much higher than India.
Britain’s medal per capita is fascinating compared to other well known nations.
India seriously needs to rethink its strategy that to be a superpower in future it has to be good in sports, if not great. India has lots of Dhonis and Virat Kohlis, it seriously needs to produce some Micheal Phelps and Usain Bolts one days.
Some people say in India that you can develop other sports in India along with cricket.
But I differ with them in this aspect. Indian parents need to teach their kids to idolize Phelps, Bolt, Nadal or CR7. So many Indian kids are idolzing Kohli, some Indian kids have to do something different.
Sunil Chetri made an appeal to cricket crazy Indians to at least pay some attention to football (The Beautiful Game).
India was once the greatest team in hockey, but now they fail to cross group stages in some of the previous major hockey championships in recent times.
It is the duty of new Indian couples to send their kids to swimming academies, football academies, tennis academies,hockey academies instead of cricket academies.
India needs to save money from cricket and start pouring more money on football, hockey, tennis, swimming, athletics, wrestling, weight-lifting, table tennis and badminton. Too much cricket and too much IPL is ruining the scope for the development of other sports in India.
So in sports we see all other five countries are miles ahead of India at least in 2018. China has done a tremendous job in sports in the last 20 years.
- Some people asked me to add the point Corruption - So I am adding it.
India ranks 81 in global corruption perception index (79 according to Wiki along with China and Brazil)
China ranks 77 in global corruption perception index (79 according to Wiki)
China ranks 135 in global corruption perception index (131 according to Wiki)
Brazil ranks 79 along with China according to Wikipedia
Germany and UK is both ranked.
Smaller rank means less corrupt country, bigger rank means highly corrupt country.
- Wealth Distribution - Countries like Germany and UK has its wealth equally distributed among all people in their society. But in the other four countries, there is huge difference in wealth distribution.
In economics, the Gini coefficient (sometimes expressed as a Gini ratio or a normalized Gini index) is a measure of statistical dispersion intended to represent the income or wealth distribution of a nation's residents, and is the most commonly used measurement of inequality.
India’s richest 1% garnered as much as 73% of the total wealth generated in the country in 2017, according to a new survey by international rights group Oxfam. The report’s findings are in line with those of similar studies including the one published by renowned economists Lucas Chancel and Thomas Piketty last July, and give credence to the theory that the rich have disproportionately benefited from liberalization while others have been left struggling.
China has one of the world’s highest levels of income inequality, with the richest 1 % owning around 35 % of the country’s wealth, a report from Peking University has found. The poorest 25 per cent of Chinese households own just 1 % of China’s wealth.
China’s Gini coefficient for income, a widely used measure of inequality, was 0.49 in 2012, according to the report. The World Bank considers a coefficient above 0.40 to represent severe income inequality.
A Gini figure below 0.40 is generally considered to be within tolerable limits by economic experts.
Among the world’s 25 largest countries by population for which the World Bank tracks Gini data, only South Africa and Brazil are higher at 0.63 and 0.53, respectively.
The figure for the US is 0.41, while Germany is 0.3.
Russia Gini index (world bank estimate) was at level of .38 index in 2015, down from .40 index previous year, this is a change of around 5.5 %.
Chancel and Piketty’s report pegged India’s Gini coefficient at 0.41 to 0.49 for 2010. It is even likely that it crossed 0.5, which is an alarming level of inequality.
The lesser the index, less is the inequality. Germany has one of the least inequalities in the society while India and Brazil has huge inequality.
However USA have more inequality than China but still it is superpower. This inequality index does not prevent a country from being superpower. But have less equality makes a country’s economy more stable.
Conclusion
Russia has more military power than India and China till now, Russia has most natural resources, but at that same time you need human resource to use those huge amount of natural resource. So it falls short on other aspects like small population, aging population, higher production cost, unfriendly climate and low scope of urbanization.
Brazil has an young population but South Americans are least affected by globalization. Also its military is nothing compared to India, Russia and China. Germany and UK being developed countries has aging population, low fertility rate and very high cost of production. It is assumed that European countries will have to play a second fiddle to India and China after 2040. However an average person in UK and Germany will still be much richer than the citizens of the other four countries (see the initial part of the answer, Germany will have $4.707 trillion for its 90 or 100 million citizens while India will have $19.511 trillion for almost 2 billion citizens in 2030).
China has its own problem of an aging population, but still it is slightly younger than the European countries. Also China has cheap labour and one of lowest production cost in the world.
So this answers why India and China are going to next superpower, not the other four countries. However at present, emotions aside, the Chinese are much ahead of the Indians