How to make profit combining Asian handicap betting with European moneyline odds - part II
In part I of this series I explained how Asian handicap betting works in general.
This time I will show you a simple example how these kind of odds can be utilized to find arbitrage bets which lead to a win independently from the result of a soccer game (or any other sports event).
I chose an example which I hope you can even comprehend without reading and understanding every detail of part I. Depending on my available time (and my mood) in future I may add part III to present you a somewhat more complicated example.
We need an example, let's choose the coming soccer match Portugal against Mexico!
Let's consider the odds of some European bookmakers for the coming FIFA Confederations Cup match between Portugal and Mexico:
| Bookie | Odds for 'Portugal wins' (1) | Odds for 'draw' (X) | Odds for 'Mexico wins' (2) |
|---|---|---|---|
| bwin | 2.10 | 3.25 | 3.75 |
| Marathonbet | 2.05 | 3.44 | 4.05 |
| bet-at-home | 2.08 | 3.20 | 3.62 |
In this example European odds alone are not good enough for placing an arbitrage bet.
To check if an arbitrage bet is possible at all let's use the test formula which I presented in my article "How to make profit with betting exchanges?":
If inserting the best odds of the bookmakers above we get:
The result of this equation is about 1.014. However, as described before, it must be less than 1.0 - otherwise no arbitrage bet is possible.
Asian odds come into play and save the day! :)
Before continuing I should note that this is an example only so that in this case I chose Asian odds which in reality have already changed (odds change rather fast after big amounts of money were placed on them).
As this example should be as simple as possible, we will consider the 'Asian handicap +0.5' (AH +0.5) odds which you could get for Mexico. To bet on 'Mexico +0.5' means that you will win the bet in case Mexico wins or also if the game ends with a draw (compare my part I article to learn more).
To cover every possible outcome of the game we have to combine the best odds for a victory of Portugal with the best odds for 'Mexico +0.5'. That results in a new table:
| Bookie | Odds for 'Portugal wins' (1) | Odds for 'Mexico AH +0.5' |
|---|---|---|
| bwin | 2.10 | - |
| SBOBET (an Asian bookie) | 2.02 | 1.93 |
In this case the test formula looks as follows:
The result of this equation is about 0.994 which is less than 1.0 - an arbitrage bet is possible.
How to calculate the winnings?
The test formula tells us that a save win is possible, but how to calculate the stakes? Here is the 'recipe':
-
Choose your stake (S1) on Portugal. Let's assume we decide to place 1000 euro on that team. Of course we use "bwin" as they offer the highest odds (O1) on Portugal in our example.
Our possible winnings (W1) in case that Portugal wins would beW1 = O1 ∙ S1 = 2.10 ∙ 1000 euro = 2100 euro.
-
Calculate the stake for Mexico AH +0.5 (S2) using the formula
S2 = W1 / O2 = 2100 euro / 1.93 ≈ 1088 euro.
(Of course here you choose SBOBET to place the bet.) -
Our possible winnings (W2) in case that either Mexico wins or the game ends in a draw would be
W2 = O2 ∙ S2 = 1.93 ∙ 1088 euro = 2099.84 euro.
-
That means if Portugal wins we win 2100 euro, if Mexico wins or the game ends as a draw we win 2099.84 euro.
If we consider the smaller of the winnings and subtract all stakes we win at least
Wmin = 2099.84 euro - 1000 euro - 1088 euro = 11.84 euro.
That may be not much, but the good thing is that we win anyway, independently of the result of the game. Moreover the higher the stakes and the better the odds the higher the overall winnings.
Very often much more complicated combinations of odds are necessary to maximize the winnings, but then of course also mathematics is getting more complicated. An example would be to combine 'Portugal AH -0.25' with 'Mexico double chance' and 'Mexico win'.
Very instructive article jaki :-)
Thanks! ;)
Oh nooo: I chose "mathmatics" for the first hash tag, and it seems I cannot change it to "mathematics" anymore now ... :-)
Or is there still a way to replace it?
Da hast du einen neuen original tag erschaffen :)
Hi i can do nother but resteem your post. Great stuff and also make maths and calculation interesting :) i am always very jealous for those who live oversea take take advantage the odds different. When i used to do sport gambling, i am in hk, and the local odds for 2.5 big small is like 1.85 and 1.85. Take about the spread they are charging there.
Thanks a lot! :)
Isn't it possible to use international online bookmakers in Hong Kong?
No because they impose a law saying that it is illigal to bet using brokers outside of hong kong. They said it is to protect people from getting addicted to gamble. But it is just to protect the local business such that they could generate tax revenue to the government. But they do have a horse racing pool which is the only pool that is profitable to bet hk. Maybe i should write a few posts on this as this is one of the special thing about hong kong as well.
Similar like here, but you may try agents ...
Thank you very much for providing the second part of your explanations here. Looking forward to read more about the topic in part 3.
In general, I'm quite intrigued by this topic. The theory and the idea are very beautiful and straightforward. As already pointed out by @taica the only problem is bringing the theory to the real life.
Unfortunately, you need (a not so small amount of) initial capital and time to look for the best odds online. The biggest problem for absolute beginners is probably raising enough money to make some decent profits.
Spending (roughly) 2000 euros for a guaranteed win of (roughly) 12 euros sounds good but having those 2000 euros will be quite an issue if you start from zero. ;-)
Anyway, I know you have many more tricks and ideas up your sleeve when it comes to this topic. And I guess it's exactly those things that make it quite profitable in the long-run...
Another disadvantage is of course living in "the land of the fee", :-) also called "Germany", where licensed bookmakers have to pay taxes of 5 % of their turnover (not profit only)! That means they either offer lower odds here or take fees on winning bets ...
(Of course there are some technical ways to deal with that, too ...)
Very true, my friend. Very true... :-(
Unfortunately this is the theory only. When you will place couple of arbs with "soft bookies" against exchanges or Pinnacle, you ll be limited to pennies with soft bookies IE Bwin, Lads....
That's why you should have good friends ...
Understand :), but you must be also careful not to make any mistake, confiscations are popular now-days by bookies also 20X Rollovers are quite common, bonus scalping became terrible, many bookies will limit you before you done with ROR and so you have your funds locked. In arbing there are bots and half bots which make impossible to catch good arbs, so you only can do soft bookies vs. sharp, but that's soft bookies are quite fast to limit like after 3 bets.
Nice that you seem to be involved into this matter, too. :)
However the idea of this article was to present the concept of arbitrage betting and the option to mix European with Asian odds.
I am very well aware of the obstacles one has to overcome in 'real life', but I didn't intend to bother someone new to the topic with different tennis or ice hockey rules, limiting bookmakers and fast changing odds, because I am of the opinion that these are things which are of interest for the professional bettor only. My aim was to inspire curiosity ... who wants to reach more must find his own way in the complex betting world anyway. Be assured that I myself would never write in public about my most successful betting strategies.
Your article is OK :) I've just pointed out the real life problems related to the strategy you are describing in article. Agree on your approach about not making public the betting strategies that actually work. Once it s public it s dead ;) good luck with betting.
That's a good combination, thanks for these usefull informations!
Nice post!
Thanks! :)
Wow !! You are such a champ in maths...!!