You are viewing a single comment's thread from:

RE: Could it be possible to profitably trade a random walk?

I am using quantitative analysis models for 8+ years and I say it's possible but the answer is more complicated.

First of all the word random is not well used. Random means it's unpredictable.

A market, or a time series is very predictable, forecastable and confine-able between different probability boundaries.

This alone won't be profitable long term, because it's still random, yet it's crucial information to model the risk, give us an expectation of profit, and and expectation of volatility.

I use all kind of statistical models to forecast markets, you can check out my articles, I write frequently about it. But this alone is not enough to be profitable, it is still random, and in long term we would have 0 Expected Value of profits.

To make it profitable, we need to gather external information, like fundamental analysis to time market movements well, the price chart alone is not enough for that.

But anyway good article, but the options models like Black-Scholes, only work on derivatives where there are 2 markets to extract info from. I prefer currency markets, cryptocurrency lately.

Coin Marketplace

STEEM 0.17
TRX 0.13
JST 0.028
BTC 55089.06
ETH 2939.59
USDT 1.00
SBD 2.09