Crash course in mathematics : Lesson 2 - Estimations and skeptism
This lesson is about mathematical thinking. If it is the first lesson of this crash course you encounter, or you missed some lessons, please go back to the beginning and follow the course trough, by using the framework and index, at the end of the introduction
There is this camera that I want to buy, and it costs about $390 on Amazon. I plan to power down Steem some time soon and use it to buy the camera ( so now you know why you should upvote my posts ). This is somewhat more complicated than the buying coffee with dimes example from the previous lesson, because both the camera prices in Amazon and the Steem to USD exchange rates change all the time and we also have to consider the fact that it will take me 3 months to power down the Steem, and who knows what will happen to the numbers by then.
So what can I do? Well, I can make an estimation. The camera costs about $390 and the price of Steem is fluctuating around $0.15 . So I can do the calculation, using these estimated numbers, and conclude that I have to power down 2600 Steem.
Every application of mathematical principles to the real world involves a certain degree of estimation. The real world is in constant flux and is full of noise and imperfections, and on top of that, we often simply don't have all the data, required to make exact premises.
As we will see in the next lesson, when our minds process the sensory input we receive from the real world, they also have to rely on estimations, and even guessing. However, the way our minds do so on the instinctive level is based on a short hand process that is very fast but far from being accurate, which means that if you have the time to make thoughtful assessments and calculations, you may reach very different conclusions than what your instinctive thoughts may lead you to. Conclusions which are in most cases much more useful for making the right decisions. It also means that knowing that we must always rely on estimations, and many times don't have enough time to even do the best with what we have, we must always be skeptical about our own, as well as other people's conclusions.
But mathematical thinking can do much more for us. It can also help us estimate how much, and in what ways we should be skeptical, which is important not only as a safeguard from making wrong decisions, but may also help knowing, in which areas we should invest in making more accurate estimates. Following this process in an iterative way to make better and better estimates and reach more and more accurate conclusions, is the essence of scientific research or in fact, of any truthful investigation. Or as the Danish mathematician Piet Hein, put it so beautifully:
The road to wisdom? — Well, it's plain
and simple to express:
Err
and err
and err again
but less
and less
and less.
Let me reiterate yet again:
You argued "so what if the terror attack was fake, does that mean it didn't happen?"
https://steemit.com/life/@steemtruth/jerusalem-truck-terror-attack-questions-they-can-t-answer-must-see
Not only that but you outright lie and distort truth while you perpetrate a course in journalism! Laughable!
You couldn't care less about journalism and that post proves it unequivocally!
You also deny classism and it's evident effects, you believe that class warfare is imagined and in peoples minds, how much more of a fraud can you be as a person?!
You denigrated an article right off the bat because it provided evidence that it was a false flag perpetrated by none other than your Israel can do no wrong state. In that post you lied and backtracked multiple times. To top of all this, my first interaction with you was by your other trollish remark to a pizzagate article. You were crying about the artist that painted disturbing murals in a family restaurant and his potential of becoming a victim while ignoring the irreparable damage of any young mind that was faced with when entering that "pizzeria" and upon viewing that "art". Yo
I have only one objective when posting my repeated warning: to expose the fraud you are and get your repentance in a public discourse for the lies you spread and the cacophony you wrote excusing classism to merely in people's imagination. You have integrity and no respect, therefore you gets no respect and will be called a liar, every chance I get. You err and that is not the big deal as I and everyone makes mistakes, the big deal is not admitting you made a mistake and seeking to correct it, especially when confronted, which make you a little man without resolve to be better and your lack of integrity means you will forever be the boy that cried wolf.
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