How Did Math Tell Us It’s Better to Switch?
I’m not sure if I’m proud of this: I almost don’t watch television. I rather use my laptop to watch YouTube videos, movies streaming and episodes of 13 Reasons Why from Netflix. Yet, I’m in front of our turned On television while typing these words feeling stupid for myself. I’m in the world of my own. Doesn’t care about the world and people around me.
Okay, I’m distracted. LOL.
The Television Game Show
As I’m telling you my weird allergy to the wonder flat screen, I’m also telling you about a television game show. There’s this Filipino TV show “WOWOWIN” hosted by a well-known celebrity Willie Revillame. I will not tell you more about the TV show or the TV show host, but more about one of the games as part of the TV show, “Pera o Kahon.” Pera ( Filipino word for “money”) or Kahon (Filipino word for “box”) is a game show where a lucky contestant will select from three boxes. Two of them is bokya (means “zero” price) and one has the jackpot price of one million Philippine pesos (almost US$ 19,300) plus house and lot.
After the contestant chose his box (let say box number 2), the game show host will offer money against the chosen box. The contestant will then choose if he will take the offer or stand up for the chosen mystery box. The host will keep on offering more money until…
The True Probability of Switching
The host will ask the contestant, “Pera o Kahon?” If the contestant still chose the box, the host might do something interesting: he will pick box number 1 and will show that the box is bokya. Then more interesting question will come out: “are you willing to switch from box number 2 to box number 3?”
So, here’s my question for you: is it better to switch to box number 3 or stay at box number 2?
I ask this same trivial question to my cousin and he’s saying there’s no difference. Maybe, you will say the same thing.
Let me ask you then a math question: what is the probability of winning from the right one from three choices? I know you get it right: 33% or 1/3.
But, this next question might trick you: among the three boxes, box number 1 was already revealed as a loser’s choice, so what is the probability of switching between the two boxes? If your answer is 50% or 1/2, then you got it wrong! 🙂
The truth is–the probability of switching is better than not switching. There is a 66% or 2/3 chance of winning if you switch.
The True Number of Boxes
It is true that I’m almost not watching TV, but it is not true that there are only three boxes (sorry, I will explain). Actually, there are ten boxes with names of Filipino colorful flowers–Kalachuchi, Dalia, Sampaguita, Rosas, Santan, Dama de Noche, Ilang-Ilang, etc… I know ’cause I watched the game show on YouTube.
So, this means that one out of the ten boxes has the jackpot price.
I hope the ten boxes analogy will explain more why it is better to switch.
We’ll start again the game. Let say the contestant choose a box named Dalia. Then the host will reveal the box named Dama de Noche. Then Rosas. Then Santan. Showing box after box giving more relief to the contestant from not choosing them.
It will continue until only two boxes remain and one of them is the contestant’s box. Let say, the two boxes are Dalia (the contestant’s choice) and Kalachuchi. The host will offer more and more money to test the contestant’s commitment to his choice.
If the contestant is a true believer of his chosen box, the host will give one more final test–a question. “Will you switch from your box Dalia to Kalachuchi?” This is an opportunity to switch.
At the first scenario, it is easy to see the contestant has a 10% chance of winning. One out of ten, right? After the host revealed the eight boxes with zero value, there is a 50% chance between choosing the two remaining boxes, right? Wrong again!
Why It Is Better to Switch?
The chance of actually winning by switching is 90%! As you might have noticed, the host revealed precious information from the eight unwanted boxes. Back from the first scenario, the contestant chooses one from ten boxes. The eight could also be the choice if not revealed.
Unless the contestant gets the right choice the first time, it is way better to switch. By all means, switch!
So, What’s the Point?
This scenario might not be what’s really happening to “Pera o Kahon” game. This is just an imperfect analogy and somewhat connected to my last blog post about math.
You might ask, “so what? what’s the point of knowing it is better to switch?” Well, life is like a game full of rules, choices, and outcomes. Unfortunately (or fortunately), life has way more choices than ten boxes. The number of choices is close to infinity.
All I can say for now is that life is like the “Pera o Kahon” game show. There are few people who make life choices right the first time. They don’t have to switch. Married at first romantic relationship. Hired at first job application. Succeed at first founded business. Life long friends you met since age five. Winning the jackpot at first try in the lottery.
All of us have our own sets of beginner’s luck. But, none of us won at everything we tried for the first time. So, what this game is telling us is that it’s okay to switch. It’s okay to make mistakes. It’s okay if life tells us that our decisions are mostly about opening the box with the word “bokya”.
By trying and trying, the chances of getting the right choice keeps getting bigger every time. The box with word “1 Million Pesos plus House and Lot” will come to you if you keep on switching.
Lack of Self-Awareness Leads to Shiny Object Syndrome
One of the beauties of switching is it increases our self-awareness. I know I’m not a good basketball player because I tried playing it. Time and time had passed, the truth will reveal in a golden platter from failed attempts what are our strengths and weaknesses.
Unlike with the game show, the winning and losing are more about pure luck. Ten boxes with different flower names tell you nothing about which is the best choice. In life, if you’re self-aware enough, you might know that choosing to play table tennis rather than basketball is the right decision to make. You might know that the architecture course is the best fit for you. You might know that even though both of your parents are doctor, it doesn’t mean that you will become one as well.
From the time I’m writing this, I admit I have a long way to go of being self-aware enough. But, I can say I had improved from my past experiences. I tried to join multi-level marketing, teach at university, rub elbows with Indians and Pakistanis, went to the marathon, climbed mountains, jogged in the nearest lake, attended plenty of internet marketing seminars, sold umbrellas, read books while on a commute and many more seemingly weird activities.
I go from one activity to another not because I’m a serial pro-active individual. Reading these words of mine, you might think I’m outgoing. The truth is I preferred not to go anywhere outside the comfort of my family’s house, but I know I should. Nobody’s perfect, we all feel lazy. Some days, I let my feeling of laziness take over.
Ten (or even two) years ago, I was not self-aware I just do anything that someone will tell me. I want to fit in. I need a lot of emotional needs from attention. I will bend over to anyone just to please them. I will go wherever I think there is a new shiny object to find. I will not commit from one activity, because I also lack the patience to continue.
I’m Switching Again
Of all the things I tried to learn and do, writing for me is the one that sticks. I earn almost zero from ten years of typing my thoughts. Even now, I cringed typing these words and hearing words at the back of my head saying, “Who do you think you are? You are just a trying hard pathetic writer. Ten years of writing in the void and you still suck with plenty of grammar errors. Your paragraphs are out of context. You’re just relying on writing software like Grammarly and Hemingway App.”
Anyway, I continue to write despite my greatest critic–myself. Now, I also want to explore the world of 3D Printing and Modeling. As I’m browsing the internet, I found a SketchUp, free software for 3D modeling. I tried it and lost in time while learning. I then found out that I downloaded a 30-day trial. My relationship with this wonderful software has an end.
I look for another software which is free and still of great quality. Thus, I found Fusion 360 which is one of the products of Autodesk. AutoCAD, which taught to me in college, is also the product of Autodesk. Now, my words seem like coming from a brochure to sell something. I don’t have enough cash to buy either a software or a 3D printer. What am I saying is that while I could not make a 3D print myself, I will just write about my journey in learning this great technology.
While having a full-time job, I could improve my writing and learn more about 3D Printing and Modeling during my spare time. This might mean a hell of a lot of work, from my current self-awareness I know this is possible for me. Well, only time can tell if I’m just typing empty words.
The Beauty of Math
There are many ways to be successful, it depends on your definition of success. There are many ways to be happy, it depends on what makes you happy. There are many ways to go somewhere. There are many questions to get the same answer.
The answer to “4+4” is 9. Same with “2+7.” And with “1+8”. And with “square root of 81.” And with “15-6.” In short, a simple answer like the number “9” has infinite formulas that could come up.
What works for you may not work for me. The opposite is also true. It is true that the sun shines for all of us. But, the experience will differ from person to person.
The beauty of life and math is that they will let you get the answer you’re looking for. But, you might not exactly know how would you get that answer. I think gratitude and a great perspective of your current situation will do wonders no matter what our circumstances.
Losing the Lottery Will Not Teach Us Much
For every lottery jackpot winner, there are millions upon millions who donated money to the government. Just in case you didn’t notice, governments use the lottery to tax us more unknowingly. I bet that’s a different topic.
If you tried out in college basketball and failed. You either improved your basketball skills or look for another sport. And even not sports. At least, you improved your self-awareness.
In the lottery, if you pick six numbers out of 49 choices and you failed, what will you do? Will you improve your lottery skills? Did you improve your self-awareness? By the way, the chance of winning the jackpot in 6/49 Lottery is 13,986,816 in one.
You see, the way to improve the chance of winning the jackpot prize is either by buying more lottery tickets or switching to another lottery game. The thing is you don’t learn much from losing the lottery.
What if ten years from now I failed in writing and 3D Printing? This is like the lottery, winning is uncertain. What I’m certain is–even if I lose, I’ll be closer to the person I aspire to become.
You Already Won the Greatest Lottery Ticket
If the chance of winning the jackpot prize in 6/49 lottery is 13,988,816, the chance of having a life is 400,000,000,000,000 in one. That’s 400 trillion in one chance! You already won the game of the greatest lottery which is way harder to win than any lottery in the world. We all won the lottery of life. You’re alive! Are you?
If you found yourself complaining, remember to be thankful you are not born as a tree (not free to change location) or as a goldfish in an aquarium (free to change location, but limited).
Everyone has a story with broken chapters. Everyone has done something they are not proud of. But, whatever happened, it’s gone and all we have now is the “now.”
Thinking and Doing
Most of us are scared of trying new things. I will not judge ‘cause I know the feeling. I’m still scared and will always be. For me, the aim in life is not to live without fears, but to live with the least regrets. If I will not write, I will be free from any risks. But, if I write, I might have the chance to do things afraid for the sake of genuine happiness.
I should remember: for now, I’m just saying what I will do. I’m not telling much of what I had done ’cause those are shamefully few. I’ve been into too much pondering, but less implementing. Thinking instead of really doing something will get nothing done.
Thinking is only important if it will lead you to do the damned “thing.”
Do your thing. Choose your box. Switch your box if you should.
Open yourself up to new experiences. With sweaty palms and trembling legs, I will try that too.
"How Did Math Tell Us It’s Better to Switch?" was originally posted on 3DWriterPH blog. Go to https:3DWriterPH.Home.Blog