The Biggest Sell-off of This Century Won't Be Delayed Forever

argentsilver (58)in #markets • 5 years ago (edited)

If you thought markets had any randomness, you'd be both right and wrong.

While I don't have a link to the source, I recall that over the course of a century there was one investment firm that showed how you only need to buy or sell once every few decades to make as much or more money than you ever would by day-trading or putting your money into an index fund. This wasn't some ploy to get people to invest with them, it was a data driven conclusion as I recall that showed markets are 100% emotionally driven at key points in time, and that most short-term price action is merely "white noise."

What I believe the S&P500 shows in the following chart is the current macro trend, and possibly where we will see this macro trend make the next big swing.

S&P500 Weekly

The point at which the long trend reaches a major squeeze point is June 2020, but given that most of the world is already in recession, and that markets are rising on every piece of negative news about the economy, and that the major powers of the world are in a war-ready posture, I don't see how anyone could know the day or the week we'll see this long trend collapse under it's own weight. 2007-2008 will pale in comparison to what we'll see soon, and I expect the S&P500 to drop down to around 1800 in this coming crash.

In the short term, volatility is running high, with the 50-day moving average soon inverting with the 100-day. This volatility quietly points to this macro swing to the downside that is coming.

Dow Jones Daily

I should warn, this next part is highly speculative and just my opinion.

There is of course a possibility that we're only on the 3rd wave of an Elliott Wave cycle, and after the upcoming crash we'll see a final climb to the top before the really big crash happens. My wave 5 is extended a little, so a 40,000 Dow Jones Index is probably unlikely, but it's still possible because of the psychological weight the number 40 and 40,000 may have.

Dow Jones Weekly