In this report I look at the technical picture for the stock market, the dollar, bitcoin, gold and the U.S. 10-year yield. I also argue that the stagflationary environment of the 1970s could be coming back to life.
Thanks @maneco64. I think we over here in Canada has already been in a stagflation for sometime. Average wage is not growing more than 2% which is close to "official" jigged inflation numbers that do hendonic adjustment and goods substitution.
Goods in the index substitution from Stats Can.
If a product fails to meet sales-share criteria, it is removed from the survey and replaced by another product with higher sales.
No people's taste didn't move away from steak, they are buying burgers because they can't afford steak. So how good is this CPI index in representing inflation.
This is the killer one from the same CPI explanation, always make me laugh --
Many public goods and services provided by governments, and for which there is no market price, are excluded since they cannot be associated with a retail price. For example, health services received through the health insurance system are excluded, as are life and disability insurance premiums. However, drugs, medical supplies, dental care, and eye care goods and services purchased by the general population are included, since these goods and services can be associated with retail prices.
My interpretation - medical cost is going to the moon so big pharma lobbed to have health insurance to hide the cost and let the tax payers take the hit because at this stage people can't afford the prices. Remember when you are getting something for free it is usually more expansive than buying it yourself especially through big bro.
yes i remember the 70's well as a teenager maneco64 and i see all around the signs on the street today from those times re-appearing, from the rubbish not collected, littered every where, to the total degradation of zero maintenance to paths roads housing, other things like the three day week (which is classed as some sort of full time zero hours contract employment today) the continued power cuts (which i see happening in the rural areas to start) etc etc, then along came maggie t, and the kicking the can down the road, and here we are right back in the same situation but with a much much worse problem that still those keynesian's refuse to accept! great post and resteemed thank you.
Yes I remember the 1970s too. I like you was a teenager then. I grew up in Brazil so we had constant stagflation there but my wife grew up here in the U.K. in the 1970s and she tells me it wasn't a great time either.
I think that you are right in that we are going to have falling asset prices but this is just in leverage based assets because of rising interest rates. Commodity prices should rise. Also, the raising rates are to raise more capital because of the money leaving the bond markets. The debt still needs to be paid and money will still be printed to we will have inflation on real goods and deflation on leveraged based assets. The initial result (in my opinion) is going to be severe volatility rather than flatness. It's really hard to predict things when we're in such deep uncharted water these days.
Thanks @maneco64. I think we over here in Canada has already been in a stagflation for sometime. Average wage is not growing more than 2% which is close to "official" jigged inflation numbers that do hendonic adjustment and goods substitution.
Goods in the index substitution from Stats Can.
No people's taste didn't move away from steak, they are buying burgers because they can't afford steak. So how good is this CPI index in representing inflation.
This is the killer one from the same CPI explanation, always make me laugh --
My interpretation - medical cost is going to the moon so big pharma lobbed to have health insurance to hide the cost and let the tax payers take the hit because at this stage people can't afford the prices. Remember when you are getting something for free it is usually more expansive than buying it yourself especially through big bro.
great report @maneco64.
Upvote and resteem.
Thanks @salma-akanda
coup off caffe and start to watch!
yes i remember the 70's well as a teenager maneco64 and i see all around the signs on the street today from those times re-appearing, from the rubbish not collected, littered every where, to the total degradation of zero maintenance to paths roads housing, other things like the three day week (which is classed as some sort of full time zero hours contract employment today) the continued power cuts (which i see happening in the rural areas to start) etc etc, then along came maggie t, and the kicking the can down the road, and here we are right back in the same situation but with a much much worse problem that still those keynesian's refuse to accept! great post and resteemed thank you.
Yes I remember the 1970s too. I like you was a teenager then. I grew up in Brazil so we had constant stagflation there but my wife grew up here in the U.K. in the 1970s and she tells me it wasn't a great time either.
I think that you are right in that we are going to have falling asset prices but this is just in leverage based assets because of rising interest rates. Commodity prices should rise. Also, the raising rates are to raise more capital because of the money leaving the bond markets. The debt still needs to be paid and money will still be printed to we will have inflation on real goods and deflation on leveraged based assets. The initial result (in my opinion) is going to be severe volatility rather than flatness. It's really hard to predict things when we're in such deep uncharted water these days.