Calling the bottom on anything is a risky business, but certainly not impossible, because price patterns DO repeat. Many times you can trade just based on basic support/resistance levels, and they're pretty accurate - mostly because everyone else sees them as support/resistance. That said, fundamentals DO play a part in market movements, despite what Haejin may be saying (I don't follow him). But what you'll usually see is long-term trends developing because of fundamentals. Sure there may be short term action on news releases, but those often retrace anyway. Crypto is a bit more risky because of the limited history and limited fundamentals. Some have said technical analysis is useless in crypto, but I actually believe it is more useful in crypto because of the lack of fundamentals.

In any casae, good luck with your plan, and I for one don't think that buying after a 30% rise is insane. I missed buying LTC at $90 and instead bought at $180. Right before LTC went to $400.