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RE: The Cult of Crypto (don't be the greater fool)

in #life6 years ago (edited)

I've been telling people that we could see bitcoin and other cryptos have a 90% correction from last December's high and that we could be in for an extended bear market. The pattern looks very much like what happened in late 2013 and early 2014 but at a higher scale. I think the market will bottom out in 2019 and start trading sideways until the next block halving sometime around summer 2020. Around summer 2020 I think the beginning of the next mania phase will begin and another attempt at mass adoption will happen culminating in early 2021. If the technology isn't ready then, the same thing will happen, but again at a higher scale than what is happening now.

We tried mass adoption in December 2017, but the technology wasn't ready. It hit a scaling wall where transaction fees were approaching and sometimes exceeding $100 USD in bitcoin. A protocol that can only handle about 7 transactions per second will not unseat Visa / MasterCard.

However the day of digital currency is coming. The question is whether it will be centralized crypto like Ripple with KYC or decentralized crypto with no national or corporate affiliation. If the former, then we will have tyranny the likes of which Hitler could not have imagined in his greatest hopes. If we have the latter, then eventually we'll finally realize how much has been stolen from the rest of us by the parasites currently running the show.

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