GSR interviews ARCH CRAWFORD - Feb 15, 2018 Nugget

goldseek-radio (28)in #life • 7 years ago

Highlights

Arch Crawford, head of Crawford Perspectives, continues to caution US equities investors that the correction could continue in 2018.
His analysis indicates summer could present the most market volatility. The opening salvo began with the Carillion fiasco in the UK (figure 1.1.).
The British construction behemoth was the most shorted company at the time, which promptly plunged into bankruptcy recently.
The collapse of Carillion shares from $300 to $14 represents a 95% plunge.
The disaster cost investors hundreds of millions in losses, and will result in thousands of much needed jobs in the UK.
What if the entire mess was avoidable, months in advance?
A new 52 week low registered on the chart and price entered a pronounced downtrend, under both the 50 / 200 period moving average.
According to Nassim Taleb’s Anti-Fragile and my Enhanced MPT via Bayesian Analysis, 100% of investors / employees / contractors would be advised and encouraged to purchase puts.
The recent 95% collapse of the short volatility ETF (XIV) caught many investors off guard, as volatility soared over 100% in a single week (figure 1.1.).
Arch Crawford notes a 5 year bottoming pattern that could lead to new highs in the PMs as soon as this year.
Current themes in artificial intelligence, robotics and related technologies are examined via intriguing real-world examples.

Figure 1.1. Carillion Collapse - Socio / Economic Implications - Avoidable / Solution?