GoldSeek Radio - Feb 16, 2018 [ARCH CRAWFORD & PETER GRANDICH] weekly
1st up:
Arch Crawford, head of Crawford Perspectives, continues to caution US equities investors that the correction could continue in 2018.
His analysis indicates summer could present the most market volatility. The opening salvo began with the Carillion fiasco in the UK (figure 1.1.).
The British construction behemoth was the most shorted company at the time, which promptly plunged into bankruptcy recently.
The collapse of Carillion shares from $300 to $14 represents a 95% plunge.
The disaster cost investors hundreds of millions in losses, and will result in thousands of much needed jobs in the UK.
What if the entire mess was avoidable, months in advance?
A new 52 week low registered on the chart and price entered a pronounced downtrend, under both the 50 / 200 period moving average.
According to Nassim Taleb’s Anti-Fragile and my Enhanced MPT via Bayesian Analysis, 100% of investors / employees / contractors would be advised and encouraged to purchase puts.
The recent 95% collapse of the short volatility ETF (XIV) caught many investors off guard, as volatility soared over 100% in a single week (figure 1.2.).
Arch Crawford notes a 5 year bottoming pattern that could lead to new highs in the PMs as soon as this year.
Current themes in artificial intelligence, robotics and related technologies are examined via intriguing real-world examples.
Figure 1.1. Carillion Collapse - Socio / Economic Implications - Avoidable / Solution?
Figure 1.2. Short-Volatility ETN - XIV Collapse
Note. Charts provided courtesy of Stockcharts.com.
next up:
On the heels of news that nearly 1000 trapped gold miners were rescued from an underground labyrinth, Peter Grandich of Peter Grandich and Company and Pete Speaks returns.
Our guest notes he is a "Real gold bull... haven't been this bullish on gold in 34 years."
Expect a new record gold price to unfold in less than two years.
His service was one of a few to warn US equities investors of the recent plunge, weeks in advance.
Peter Grandich advised readers / subscribers of, "The most precarious stock market conditions in his 34 years on Wall Street," noting further that he added short positions in US shares.
The current equities index price rebound may be short-lived; investors are advised to batten down the hatches and prepare for continued rough seas.
Inflation fears are a growing concern to stock / bond markets, encouraging further investment in underpriced safe haven assets.
Heavyweight financial institutions, such as pension / endowment funds, are significantly under-invested in PMs, by less than half of one percent (Barisheff, 2013).
A tidal wave of demand will inevitably pour into the safe haven assets.
Fund managers should feel compelled to fulfill their fiduciary responsibility to shield their clients retirement accounts from impending market exposure.
Seth Klarman notes in the must read, Margin of Safety; just as Roman architects were obliged to stand underneath their constructions as the final scaffolding was removed.
So should money managers should be compelled to insure the safety of their clients funds via precious metals exposure.
Then Robert Ian finished the show off with another Conquer Change installment.
Thanks!
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