Limit the increase of the global temperature to 2 ºC is no longer feasible

According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) reached a new and sad record in 2010. Worse: the flagship goal of limiting global warming to 2 ° C becomes unreachable.

While the global financial crisis has slightly started the uninterrupted evolution of CO2 emissions in 2009 , the 2010 rebound is worse than expected with a record 30.6 billion tonnes (Gt) of CO2 emitted, an increase of 5 % compared to the previous record of 2008 (29.3 Gt).
In terms of fossil energy, 44% of emissions estimated in 2010 come from coal, 36% from oil and 20% from natural gas.

According to the latest National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) estimates, global CO2 concentrations were 391.55 ppm (1) in March 2011, an increase of nearly 40 percent from the beginning of the revolution. industrial (about 280 ppm in 1750). In comparison, it took more than 5,000 years for the CO2 concentration to increase by only 80 ppm at the end of the last ice age ... (IPCC, 2007).

" This significant increase in CO2 emissions and the reduced room for maneuver for the future due to current investments in infrastructure represent a serious setback to our hopes of limiting global temperature rise to 2 ° C, " said Dr Fatih Birol, chief economist at the IEA overseeing the World Energy Outlook annual report, the agency's flagship publication.

At the Cancún climate change conference in late 2010, states recognized the need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 25 to 40 percent by 2020. not to exceed the fateful threshold of 2 ° C (2) increase of the average temperature of the planet. However, for this primary objective to be achieved, the greenhouse gas concentration should be contained in the long term at approximately 450 ppm CO2 equivalent, which corresponds to only 5% more than the estimated value of 430 ppm. already 10 years ...

In addition, the IEA has estimated that 80% of projected emissions in the energy sector up to 2020 are already tied up by power plants that are currently in place or under construction today.

The challenge of improving and maintaining the quality of life of people around the world while limiting CO2 emissions has never been greater. While the IEA estimates that 40% of global emissions came from OECD countries in 2010, these countries now account for only 25% of emissions growth compared to 2009. Non-OECD countries (3 ) - led by China and India - have experienced a much larger increase in their emissions than their so-called exceptional economic growth. However, based on per capita CO2 emissions, OECD countries averaged 10 tonnes, compared to 5.8 tonnes for China and 1.5 tonnes for India.

The IEA World Energy Outlook report has identified a scenario to 2020 that can respond to the climate emergency. In this, global emissions related to the energy sector must not exceed 32 Gt. This means that the total emissions of the next ten years must be lower than those recorded in just one year: between 2009 and 2010 ... A bet unfortunately untenable.

" Our latest estimates are a new wake-up call, " says Dr. Birol. " The world is currently incredibly close to the level of emissions that should not be achieved in 2020 to keep the increase below 2 ° C. Given the remaining room for maneuver, unless bold and decisive decisions are made, will be extremely difficult to achieve the overall goal agreed in Cancún. "

Remember, the Cancún conference ended with applause from the countries gathered and a number of major environmental organizations (WWF, Greenpeace, Oxfam, RAC France, FNE, Cap 21 ...) . And yet, this agreement remains unintentional and devoid of binding objectives ... This new study shows once again all the inefficiency of this process of discussions where declarations of good intentions supplant effective decision-making.

The president of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Rajendra Pachauri, declared at the end of 2009 : " the developed world has done nothing, the Kyoto Protocol is recognized rather by its violation than by the accession to limits that have been set. "

Notes

 This concentration expressed in ppm (parts per million) corresponds to the number of CO2 molecules divided by the number of millions of molecules in the air.
The scientific studies are formal: a moderate warming below 2 ° C would still be within the limit of "bearable"; beyond that, the consequences for ecosystems and human societies will be devastating.
Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development ( OECD ) 

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