10x Research: Bitcoin’s rise is due to macro factors! Halving and ETFs are not bullish

Markus Thielen, a research analyst at 10x Research, said that selling pressure has enveloped the cryptocurrency market today, which will almost certainly drive prices down in the short term.

Markus Thielen, a research analyst at 10x Research, said that selling pressure has enveloped the cryptocurrency market today, which will almost certainly drive prices down in the short term.

Bitcoin ETF flows continue to decline

Markus Thielen said on CoinDesk’s Podcast that there are currently no catalysts that can push prices up again: We no longer have the upward momentum to push prices from $40,000 to $70,000, mainly because of the Bitcoin spot ETF , there has been almost no inflow of new money in the past few weeks, investors have passed the initial excitement period, and traditional financial investors no longer seem interested.

Previously, Markus Thiele continued to be bullish when ETF flows declined, and believed that stablecoins were the real indicator of capital inflows.

Macro factors are unfavorable

Markus Thielen emphasized that the macro environment is the main driving force for price increases. From the end of last year to the beginning of 2024, traders believed that the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates multiple times this year. This expectation helped to increase the prices of risk assets, such as technology stocks and cryptocurrencies. price.

Markus Thielen: The inflow of funds into the Bitcoin ETF did not stop suddenly, but stopped when the Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index were released on March 12.

Citing data such as the March inflation report, he pointed out that inflation is still well above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, leading the Federal Reserve to repeatedly express uncertainty about whether it will cut interest rates.

Bitcoin halving was never a bullish event

Bitcoin halving often brings about a bull market, but Markus Thielen still believes that it is macro factors that bring about a bull market for Bitcoin, rather than halving: the rise is mainly due to the positive macro environment, not the halving itself. For example, the last halving occurred in May 2020, and with the massive fiscal stimulus (rate cuts, money printing) surrounding the COVID-19 pandemic, I would hardly attribute any increase to the halving.

He expects the market to usher in a period of weeks-long consolidation, with Bitcoin potentially falling to $50,000 before rebounding before the end of the year.