Gold, JPY, USD. Destiny

in jttheat •  3 years ago  (edited)

On a long enough time frame, all fiat currencies move towards their true value.... nothing.
Which means, in the end, Gold (all real assets) will always go up in value... or rather 'keep their value' while fiats collapse.

I had some time this weekend, so I decided to look at the major currency charts. Let's see what I found.

USD Index Long Term Trend

As you can see below, the USD is in a long term 100 year downtrend. Most recently, it has retraced to the 68% fibonacci level of its 2000 high. This has been caused by the inflation plans of the BOJ, who has been printing yen to ward off their deflation. It has been exacerbated by the steady Euro decline.

USDJPY - The Yen Long Term


The yen has been in a long term bull market, when compared with the USD. This was reversed in 2012 by the BOJ. However, it is becoming apparent that these policies are either not working, or that the US Fed has actually inflated much more than the BOJ. Either way, we are at a critical level. Last year, the USD/JPY bounced down off its 68% fib retracement from 1990, came down, and has now bounced off its 50% retracement. This looks pretty bullish for the yen. At a 'bear' minimum, we'll retest the 38% retrace level at 109ish it looks like. This is very bearish for the USD.

A short term yen chart:


This chart is a short term view of the most recent move in the USD/JPY. The yen strengthened and then weakened to its 68% and 76% fib retracements. It has bounced hard off of this level which is also it's 1990 50% retracement level from the above chart. This just adds more confluence to a bullish yen scenario (at least in the short-mid term), which is bearish USD, bullish Gold.

EURUSD: Less Clear


On this chart, I have run my fib from the lowest price the Euro has had to its highest price. You can see that it has been bouncing around the fib retracement levels, most recently breaking down towards the 76% level. I would predict that it will bounce off this level and head upwards to retest its 50% retracement (pink). I can almost guarentee that the Euro will not take a deeper plunge without at least testing this 50% level. Markets always retrace to the mean, and you can see clearly that it bounced above this level multiple times. It will surely do the same below. In the short to mid term, this is bearish for the USD, thus also bullish for gold.

Bonus Charts: Silver and Goldman Sachs

Silver Retrace


For those worried about the current silver market, I just looked back at the 2000-2011 market. SIlver also made a retracement to its 76% fibonacci level. Then it rallied hard. The current retracement took place much faster than the one in 2008, so hopefully the upswing happens quicker too. :)

Goldman Sachs & The Election

Call me a conspiracy theorist, but I do believe that money drives politics. People think that Trump winning was an upset to the 'Establishment'. I don't buy that for a second. They made sure that Killary went up against him because she is the only candidate that could lose to Trump. Even then, she still got the popular vote. So the question becomes, ''Who benefits from a Trump win?''. Well, my bet is on Goldman Sachs. Whatever Trump's plans, they will benefit Goldman. This chart says it all. The only time Goldman went up this fast was when it got the 2009 bailouts. So, I wonder what they have planned that Trump will create that will give them the money to increase their margin trading.


OKAY, that's all. Enjoy. Trade smart.
-JTtheAT

Bitcoin Tips welcome here: 1BgyoS3wsaxMxNPSua6M3VKPDoeF3sZsvE

edit
PS. I was asked ''what about the chinese new year? My response: I wrote about that in my last article. I expect a run up to 1250 this week. and a collapse down to 1220 or even 1170 next week during holiday. I will be buying JNUG at the bottom of the smash. Hopefully around the 7$ range

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