Climate Emergency 1.44 degrees C above 1750 baseline

Recently I heard that a lot of the numbers we have been hearing about the rise of global temperatures are misleading. The Paris climate talks were based on the 1750 baseline – the average global temperature in 1750 (preindustrial).

The World Bank report “Turn Down the Heat” appears to define preindustrial as 1880-1900 but it was difficult to find this out from my reading of it. It could have been clarified by the time of the Paris talks.

The currently reported rise of about .99º C from NASA data for 2016 is from a baseline temperature average from 1951-1980. To get the correct figure you need to add the rise in temperature from 1951-1980 from the average temperature of 1880-1910 (this is of some 0.3º C). To this you need to add the amount the temperature rose from 1750 to 1880-1910 (additionally some .15º C).

So the actual global average rise in temperature in 2016 was 1.44º C above the preindustrial 1750 baseline.

Using this method the calculated global average temperature for February 2016 was actually 1.8º C above the 1750 baseline of average February temperature.

I heard this reported by Professor Paul Beckwith on his video. It worth watching and he goes into detail about the rise in temperature calculation around the 9th minute.

(The video is not my work)

The situation is actually changing a lot faster than most people expected. Even though humans have been producing less CO2 output recently the atmospheric CO2 concentration continues to go up. This is possibly indicating that the Earth’s ability to absorb the CO2 is reducing or perhaps some tipping point is being reached where additional CO2 is being released from other factors. Many scientists including Paul Beckwith have called this a “climate change emergency”.

My Thoughts

My biggest question at this point is why the numbers are not being reported correctly? Is this some oversight or what? If you have read the World Bank’s report on climate change it is very grim. We certainly do not want to see what a 4º C hotter world is like.

Some religious people think that this is God’s will. This reminds me of a story that I will try to tell from what I remember of it. I don’t remember where this came from. (I read, listen and watch many things and have a selective memory)

Once upon a time there lived a very righteous man that believed that everything was God’s will. He was very pious and prayed everyday. One day a big storm came up and the people were very frightened. His brother came up to him and said, “There is a big storm warning with a high chance of flooding, we should get out of here. Let me help you leave.”

The man looked at his brother and said, “No God will save me, I’m not afraid. You go on.”

So his brother left and a big storm raged and flood waters came up higher and higher. The man climbed up on the roof and began praying to be saved. A friend came by in a boat and said, “Time to leave, climb aboard before the storm gets worse.”

The man waved him off, “God will save me,” he said.

The man in the boat shook his head and paddled off. Things were getting much worse and the water was rising faster. The man began to more fervently pray as the winds howled. A helicopter came by and dropped a life saving ring for the man to climb on but he would not leave and waved the helicopter away.

He prayed and prayed and then a large wave washed over the house and swept him out to sea where he drowned.

In the afterlife the man found himself talking to God. “I felt like I did everything right, why didn’t you save me when I prayed so hard?” he asked.

“I sent you three Angels, what more would ask of me?” God said.

Moral of the tale: I don’t think God wants bad things to happen but if we shot the messenger all the time or try to ignore the physical laws of the universe what would you expect?

Please excuse my use of the term “God”, I am actually very non-denominational so feel free to use any any other term such as “higher self” or “the universe” or whatever term fits best with your theology.

The number 144 seems to come up a lot in various religions. It seems fitting somehow at this time. I’ve been meditating with my piece of magnesite crystal and saw a vision of 1.6º C being very important somehow. What it means is anybodies guess. But for heaves sake don’t listen to my babbling – listen to the vast majority of climate scientists and the hard data that we are gathering now.

Please let me know what you think. Sometimes it feels like I’m the only one the least bit concerned about the situation of climate change.

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Thanks for reading. I always welcome your support. The graphic was made by me in GIMP