2 weeks ago Haejin was counting that we were in a wave 3 for XRP and target was $4.11. That was clearly a HUUGE miscount as it is evident now we were in a wave 5. We clearly fell well short of the target. This applies to most of his other calls in last 3 weeks.
I know I’m going to get responses like he doesnt project time and he can’t be right all the time, it’s a game of probabilites. Also, people saying do your own TA and he has a disclaimer it’s not investment advice. But when he is constantly promoting his 80-90% hit rate. Constantly saying he’s a 20+ year veteran. And writing up clickbait titles like “profit TSUNAMI”, “imminent EXPLOSION”. Also, saying how people made huge profits with his tutoring and analysis. What do you think it is going to convince people to do...? it’s essentially screaming out, TRUST ME, and enticing people to follow him. Actions speak louder than words. I can claim i have innocent intentions but do the opposite with my actions. He says he doesn’t intend to do harm but when he doesn’t offer alternate counts, promoting exact number targets and is basically doing everything to try to convince people to follow him through his ACTIONS. That can be very harmful. I believe it’s blatantly harmful to put up exact number targets while at the same time doing things which directly convince people how accurate you are.
In the words of Petyr Baelish, “Sometimes when I try to understand a person's motives, I play a little game. I assume the worst. What's the worst reason they could possibly have for saying what they say and doing what they do? Then I ask myself, "How well does that reason explain what they say and what they do?". Let me point out a little fact that Haejin is currently earning an average of $2.5k a day from his steemit posts at his current rate. His group tutoring with 100 newbies at $150 a pop will earn him $15,000 in 1.5 hrs. Now that’s serious money and serious motivation to gain a larger following.
Moreover, many will say yeah counts can vary and he’s not really wrong, it’s just a matter of time. I’d suggest looking up the oxford definition of wrong and look at his counts in the last 3 weeks. Wrong means incorrect. Going the opposite way. Look at his predictions over the last 3-4 weeks. All of his wave drawings have been completely invalidated from an OBJECTIVE elliot rule set. His counted wave 1s have been crossed by wave 4s. Look at STEEM, XRP, XVG, QTUM, RDD. Let’s just admit his wave count was incorrect. Moreover, other analysts on tradingview were calling for this scenario well before him. It’s pure covering your eyes if you’re going to convince yourself it’s not wrong. Sure, it’ll go up and likely hit his targets from here. But that’s because in a bull market it’s more likely to go up than not. However, to say he was not wrong when all his counts have been invalidated is just pure blindfolding yourself to the plain facts of what happened.
However, I fully expext when it does go up for people to start saying i was wrong “he’s a genius, he was completely right!”. Without looking at how completely revised and invalidated his previous wave counts were. We all forget the losers and promote the winners. Fully expecting a series of KABOOMS with no mention of the times it went the opposite way. This is the definition of confirmation bias.
Disclaimer: I’m just trying to play devil’s advocate. I like Haejin and appreciate the time he has put in to educate newbies. But just trying to point out that we should call a banana a banana and not an orange. Which i feel is what people are doing here with the calls he got wrong. Trying to call a banana an orange.
Totally agree, weve gotta count the misses as well as the hits.
You're so nice for commenting on this post. For that, I gave you a vote!
Haejin's posts are more like a tool for me but i only put money in something when i'm also happy with the fundamentals and it matches other analysts predictions. How i see it, is that haejin doesn't do it to lift all weights off your shoulders but he shares how he does TA which can be even more valuable when you have the time, energy and enthusiasm to learn it yourself. I lack all of this so i always take these with grain of salt. Even that way, just following him is very profitable and i think he is a good human being compared to many so called cocky veterans and that alone makes him unique in this scene.
He’s constantly promoting himself as a 20+ year veteran with an extremy high 80-90% hit rate. How is that not cocky.
I've never seen him claiming 80-90% hit rate. He never gives any guarantees to his predictions.
Nobody can predict Massive Market Manipulation. NOBODY. Remember that. But I do agree with where you are taking this. I consider the Corrections as a gift lol