Second Halving Bitcoin happened and nothing happened

Reward produced Bitcoin block halved for the second time in the history of digital currency, from 25 to 12.5 Bitcoins. This event is often referred to as "Halving" (was the key moment in the history of Bitcoin. Each Halving happens on schedule every four years, and thanks to him in circulation may be not more than 21 million Bitcoins.

Not surprisingly, many Halving waited. There were many predictions of how the event will affect the ecosystem as a whole Bitcoins.

It has been a week since the day Halving, and it is time to take stock.

Price

One of the topics discussed was how Halving affect the price of Bitcoin. The price of digital currency is based on the supply and demand balance, so some people think that reducing the number of awards regularly should lead to an increase in prices.

But here we must note that Halving for anyone not a surprise, so many people thought that the event is already priced in. There are those who believed that waiting Halving led to something like a price bubble, and now he's blown away.

Now, one week after Halving clear that price has not changed significantly - at least not enough to assume that the reason was Halving. Now the price is about $ 675, which is comparable to $ 650 at the time Halving the price rose a couple of percent. But this is not important for Bitcoins.

However, we can say that the price increase was the result of Halving expectations, as the event was known in advance, and all who need to already have it in their calculations. Bitcoin price rose by about 50% (from $ 430) if you take three months before Halving, and more than doubled (from $ 300) when compared with what it was a year ago.

Of course, it is not yet known how Halving affect the price of Bitcoin in the future.

Interestingly, in the very moment of Halving market activity increased slightly. An hour after the first "12.5 Bitcoin block" was produced, Bitcoin exchange rate fell by about $ 30, or about 5 per cent, from $ 660 to $ 630. The price stabilized at about $ 650, as it was until Halving.

The computing capacity of the network

As compensation for the extracted block is the main source of income for the Bitcoin miners (Mining and itself costs considerable money), many expected drop of processing power network after Halving. Some even predicted a drop of processing power by 50 per cent, in proportion to the drop in awards for the block. But the more modest results gave us the owners of the largest pools mayningovyh - according to their data, the drop was from 5 to 10 percent, and in some of the pools was not falling at all.

As a result, the total computing capacity of the network has not changed much. More accurate calculations showed that she fell to one percent or less. Since Bitcoin mining on the influence of chance, perhaps influenced by this factor ( "luck"), and any fall was not. (This, of course, also means that actually fall could create more than one percent).

So for mayningovoy industry has not changed. Various pools are talking about increasing or decreasing power, but on average, everything remains as it was.

Note that the manufacturer of ASIC and mayningovy pool KnCMiner filed for bankruptcy in May last year, without waiting for Halving.

Stability

The most alarming forecasts for the price stability Bitcoin as a whole. Some well-known Bitcoin enthusiasts are worried that a sudden drop in revenue will force many miners turn off the computer equipment. The result will be drop in the processing power and creating blocks deceleration, leading to an overflow network. In the case of the worst scenario, it would lead to an outflow of users that will cause the fall of the exchange rate, which means that even more miners will turn off equipment and so on.

Another danger is described in increasing the risk of attack of 51%. Under this scenario, the reduction of the remuneration will knock miners from the network, making mining more centralized. This miners will be able to block or cancel the transaction.

Of course, such a scenario did not work for either processing power or for the price. Bitcoin network is rolling on its rails, miners create blocks and confirm the transaction, just as if nothing had happened.

As we can see, the share of processing power, which accounts for mayningovye pools from China increased by a few percent after Halving. Again, we say that there is no reason to think about the connection with Halving, it may be unrelated events.

We add that there is little reason to think about the growth of the attack probability of 51%. The three largest mayningovyh pool already control more than half of the network of computing power; and in this respect nothing has changed after Halving.