I think your assessment may be optimistic. Using approximate number (don't have the time to look them up right now) After the (first) halving of late Nov 2012, bitcoin climbed from about $10.00 to about $200 by summer, and ending with a high of appox 1200 by yearend. Depending on who you talk to the halving was responsible for the increase in price to $200 or to $1200. Using the lower figure (to be conservative), the price increase due to the 2012 halving was about 2000% this was the first having so the market had no precedent regarding what to expect, and therefore we saw reactions after the fact. However this time, in 2016, the market had fully absorbed the learnings from the previous halving. With the knowledge of the historical effect of a 2000% gain due to bitcoin halving. one would logically expect the market to begin anticipating the increase with reflection of a higher market price long before the date of the halving. This did not happen. This leads me believe that something is not quite right in bitcoin land.