We Have a 404 in Silver Deliveries, Is This Their Warning Sign?

in investing •  2 months ago  (edited)

   Great and Wonderful Thursday Morning Folks,    

      Gold continues to hold its value even with all those short “papers” being applied with the trade at $1,422.70, down 60 cents and closer to the low at $1,419 than the high at $1,431.90. Silver is leading the charge today with its trade at $16.12, up 14.9 cents with the high established right after the reopening at $16.15 with the low at $15.96. The US Dollar is trading at 96.795 down 5.8 points after reaching up to 96.93 with the low at 96.70. All of this was done before 5 am pst, the Comex open, and the London close.      

      Gold under the Venezuelan Bolivar is now priced at 14,209.22 showing a gain of 166.79 Bolivar with Silver gaining 4.345 Bolivar with the price at 160.999. In Argentina, people are getting 60,464.61 Pesos for 1 ounce of Gold proving a gain of 488.30 with Silver trading at 685.115 a gain of 15.996 in A-Peso value. The Turkish Lira now has Gold priced under its fiat at 8,111.20 showing a gain of 112.74 in T-Lira value with Silver pegged at 91.9016, a gain of 2.6801 in T-Lira value as we observe the emerging markets adding strength to the real money the people of the world value. We believe this is only adding more pressure to the price in the primary currencies which, in time, will give us these types of price swings in the (near?) future.     

      July Silver now has 404 fully paid for contracts waiting for receipts for physical and with a volume of 19 up on the board so far this morning giving us a singular price of $15.98 for the high and low, so far today. Ironically the number “404” is also tied to the internets “Page Not Found” we are all familiar with when they attack our websites with yesterday’s Volume rallying up to 84 contracts before the trade was closed out but only proving a drop of 10 obligations in the demands for physical. Silver’s Overall Open Interest is proving there is far more paper available even if there is a “404” in the physicals with the count now at 234,220 Overnighters giving us another huge gain as more short positions just keep coming into the Silver trade in order to keep Silver from going any higher than it is. So far, in the last 3 trading days, around 16,000 more papered positions had to be added in order to keep Silver from rallying over 90 cents or roughly 177 contracts per penny in order to “stay” the game.     

      I went back into the Silver options board to look over the numbers to see if there was anything else to glean. The August Options come off the board in 7 days (7/25) so I won’t bother with this count however, September’s totals are now at 19,561 Calls still holding on, with Decembers Call tally at 84,850 in total. The cereal months in between these giant counts are starting to show some minor usage with Octobers count at 5,104 held Calls, with November totaling 1,266 Calls proving very little activity for now but maybe still worth observing as we move into the latter half of the year.      

      As far as the 2020 Option counts are concerned, there is nothing like what we saw in the July, Sept, and Dec. 2019’s quantities with March 2020 totals now at 4,232. May has a total of 4, July at 8,466 with December 2020’s at 2,367 Call options. In short these numbers are still signaling the latter half of 2019 still has more pressure to be released and, in our opinion, to the upside. Hopefully the 404 in Silver deliveries is their warning sign and not ours. One thing we have on our side, is a Resolute, who seems to be very deep pocketed. As far as any options held further out, all we have in 2021 is a total of 744 Call options held and all in the July contract.     

      So far to date, the Call Option purchases made when Trump and Brexit occurred are still the biggest purchases out there. It has to mean something, and we hope it means the end of the suppression of the most manipulated commodity out there. Keep your precious metals close, hold on to that positive attitude in the head (Hi Ho Silver Away!!), and as always …   

Stay Strong! 

J. Johnson  

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