Silver Trades Lower as We Enter Red Silver Deliveries

in investing •  18 days ago  (edited)

  Great and Wonderful Monday Morning Folks,    

      We start the day off in the usual with Gold being hit in order to take profits from the options and to prove there is no demand (as if the price is the reason) with the trade now at $1,463.90 down $6.60 and right there at the low of $1,463.30 with the high to beat at $1,468.90. Nothing says a free moving market like a super tight trading range inside a commodity where an identified criminal element is allowed to do whatever, huh? Silver is doing the same, but leading this time, as the Silver Signal continues to prove it is a real thing with the trade at $17.00 (March), down 14.7 cents with the low right here at $16.965 and the high at $17.105 done much earlier in the nights trade. The US Dollar is now valued at 98.225, up 4.9 points with the high right there at 98.245 and the low at 98.080. All of this was done before 5 am pst, the Comex open, and the London close.    

      Venezuela’s currency now has Gold priced at 14,620.70 Bolivar, starting the week off with a 125.94 Bolivar loss with Silver at 169.788 down 2.696 in Bolivar value. Argentina’s Peso now has Gold priced at 87,533.91 showing a drop of 657.20 Peso’s over the weekend with Silver at 1,016.52 losing 15.11 Pesos. Over in Europe, the Turkish Lira has Gold valued at 8,401.19 showing a reduction of 23.85 T-Liras with Silver at 97.5615 dropping 0.9827 in T-Lira value.    

      November Silver’s Delivery Demand Count remains stagnated at 6. We also have Zero Volume again and no price range to dictate in this game of paper. The fact is, all of this non activity in deliveries goes back to last Monday as well. Silver’s Overall Open Interest gained more on Friday proving that the paper is the only thing keeping the price in check as 633 more shorts had to be applied to the lie in order to keep Silver at bay with the total count now at 224,294 Overnighters still willing to play and as we roll out of the November deliveries into the biggest delivery month of all - Red Silver!    

      The December Silver Options come off the board today ending a 4-year study in the largest Open Interest Count in the Comex, finalizing it all at the close of today. The total count going up the options chain in December 2019 tally’s 85,676 bought and paid for Options as of Friday’s close with 20,676 at and below $18 with 11,954 of those at and below $17. Knocking Silver down over $1 in the early part of this month was for this purpose alone, to wipe out over 9,570 “In The Money Options” at the same time NO delivery of any Silver, at the Comex, was processed over the past weeks’ period.     

      Also, of note is the scale of purchased Calls going out to 2024 on the Silver Board. This part of the anomaly will have to be looked at in the future as the total for all months going out 4 years is NOTHING to the total due to come off the board today! The combined totals (after Dec 2019) equal only 64,579 with the lion share of these due to expire within the next year (2020). Every month in 2020 Silver Call Options show gains at the $17, $18, and above, with very little to note out in 2022 to 2024.     

      To add to this is the costs to purchase an option with time on it. Case in point here; Last year November 14th 2018, I purchased a December Silver $26 Call option for 2.7 cents. This is when Silver was trading at or around $14.50. I was able to buy an insurance policy on the cheap, not anymore!  I looked at December 2020 $26 Calls and with 1 week less of time value as before, this option now costs 25.5 cents, almost 10 times the amount from last years’ time period and yet Silver is only at $17. If I added $2 more to the Strike Price, maybe I can get a cheap option since Silver went up that much, NOT! The $28 Call option in December 2020 is just under 20 cents. Late last night I was a market maker in December 2020, I was able to buy a $50 Call Option for 4.5 cents. This is not only sharply higher strike price, the cost is inflated as well.     

      Why is it that the time value became 10 times more expensive in a commodity that supposedly no one wants as the banks keep pointing at the price to say “See? no one wants the product". If so, why is the cost of insurance 10 times more expensive? All this paper has to come off the markets somehow, will this week be a point of reflection? It should be. We’ll watch to see what happens today after the Red options come off the board and as the November Deliveries in Silver end out tomorrow with the First Notice Day for Red after Thanksgiving.     

      I won’t be writing the rest of this week, I need the rest after this elongated frustrated study involving the Options Board, the Physical Deliveries, and the Overall Open Interest (aka COT done in a different way). My hope is that I was able to prove to you that the Criminal Element truly has control over the whole damn thing! Too many people choose to ignore these points, yet the biggest elements control them all in order to control the price, forcing many to not see what unlimited paper can do to the price of a product under manipulation. It is now in the DOJ's hands, we hope they do their job in protecting what the CFTC and NFA, have totally failed us on.     

      In closing, keep your precious metals in your hand and away from any third party, keep a smile on your face and a positive thought in your head no matter what, and as always …   

Happy Thanksgiving!  

J. Johnson  

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