The real reason why cryptocurrency are right now a smart investment.

in #investing6 years ago

Before you invest into cryptocurrency you have to realise that what most people think is usually wrong. Bitcoin is not going to become the number one world reserve currency. Cryptocurrency in general is a new asset class, you can see it as an alternative to stocks.

The usd has been declining pretty consistent since the beginning of 2017. That's why commodity prices have been going up and then emerging markets had easy access to capital markets at that time. EM liked to borrow in usd because it went down (and they assumed it would keep going down in the future). Because the usd was losing value the interest rates where low.

A rising usd will make interest rates go up a lot. At first this is not really an issue but you can't underestimate the effect this will have. When the dollar rises in value commodities should get cheaper but it can also be the case that professional investors flee to commodities. Then you have the combination of rising interest rates and commodity prices which means that the buying power of people becomes less.

Smart people use stocks to hedge against inflation. But since a lot of people don't trust the stock market anymore since the last crisis in 2008, there will flow a lot of money to cryptocurrency. Especially if the price starts to go up fast again because most people only buy when prices go up (fear of missing out).

Probably the next crisis will start in emerging markets. Then followed by Europe and America, it will be felt by everyone. Our wages are simply not going up fast enough with our expenses. Rising interest rates go hand in hand with bankruptcy. Governments will lose income so they need new taxes. More taxes = less money to spend in the economy. It's a vicious circle.

People need to lose their trust in the governments. Crypto = anti establishment

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